Morning Note: Oil Rises on Tariff Relief Hint; UK Jobs in Focus; Canada CPI Looms

Oil Gains on Tariff Relief Hopes

Crude oil futures rose after President Donald Trump signalled the possibility of another tariff exemption. On Monday, yesterday, Trump said he is considering temporary relief from the 25% tariffs on the auto industry to allow carmakers more time to adjust their supply chains. This followed his earlier announcement of temporary exemptions for certain tech products.

However, the upside in oil prices may be capped after OPEC+ revised down its demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, citing uncertainties from the ongoing trade war and weaker-than-expected economic data. The group now projects demand to increase by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.28 million bpd in 2026, down from previous estimates of 1.45 million and 1.43 million bpd, respectively.

(Crude Oil Futures Daily Chart, Source: Trading View)

From a technical analysis perspective, crude oil futures have been moving in a bearish trend, as indicated by the formation of lower highs and lower lows. Recently, the price rebounded from the support zone of 58.00 – 58.70. If it manages to close above the swap zone of 66.00 – 66.60 in the near term, bullish momentum may push the price higher. Conversely, if it fails to break above the swap zone, the persistent bearish structure could drive the price lower, potentially leading to a retest of the support zone of 58.00 – 58.70.

U.K. Job Growth Expected to Slow

The U.K. employment change recorded a strong gain of 144,000 in January, but the forecast for February stands at a more modest 95,000, reflecting several contributing factors. The January surge may have been influenced by seasonal hiring or post-holiday adjustments, making the February figure a natural normalization. The broader economic landscape also suggests a slowdown, with recent GDP data pointing to stagnation or slight contraction, especially in consumer-driven sectors. Furthermore, the labour market may be nearing saturation in key industries, which limits the potential for continued strong employment growth. This data is set to be released on 15 April at 06:00 GMT.

(GBP/USD Daily Chart, Source: Trading View)

From a technical analysis perspective, the GBP/USD currency pair has been in a bullish trend since mid-January 2025, as indicated by the formation of higher highs and higher lows. Recently, it broke above the previous resistance zone of 1.3090 – 1.3120. The continued bullish momentum might be pushing the pair higher, potentially retesting the order block at 1.3390 – 1.3420.

Investors Await Canada Inflation Data

Canada’s year-over-year inflation rate was 2.6% in February, with a projected rise to 2.8% in March, while the month-over-month rate stood at 1.1%, expected to ease to 0.8% in March. The anticipated increase in the annual rate reflects base effects from last year and persistent price pressures in key categories like shelter and services. However, the monthly slowdown suggests that much of February’s jump was due to temporary factors, such as energy price volatility or seasonal adjustments, that are not expected to repeat in March. Overall, the forecasts point to sticky core inflation trends while short-term momentum moderates.

(USD/CAD Daily Chart, Source: Trading View)

From a technical analysis perspective, the USD/CAD currency pair has been in a bearish trend since the beginning of February 2025. Recently, it broke below the order block of 1.3920 – 1.3950, indicating continued bearish momentum. If it fails to break above the order block in the near term, the bearish momentum could push the pair lower. Conversely, if it closes above the order block, it may move higher to retest the swap zone of 1.4070 – 1.4100.

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Past performance is not indicative of any future results. This information is provided for informative purposes only and should not be construed to be investment advice.