A series of key economic data releases and central bank decisions is scheduled for 12 August 2025. At 0430 GMT, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to cut its interest rate from 3.85% to 3.60%, reflecting concerns over slowing economic growth, subdued consumer spending, and cooling inflation. At 0600 GMT, the U.K. will publish its June unemployment rate, with forecasts pointing to a slight improvement from 4.7% to 4.6%, supported by modest job gains in key sectors. Later at 1230 GMT, the U.S. will release its July year-over-year inflation rate, expected to remain steady at 2.7%, as stabilising price pressures in goods offset persistent inflation in services.
The economic calendar remains active on 14 and 15 August. On 14 August, Australia will release its July unemployment rate at 0130 GMT, forecast to hold steady at 4.3%, indicating a cooling yet stable labour market. The U.K. will report its June GDP MoM at 0600 GMT, expected to rebound by 0.1% following a –0.1% dip in May. The U.S. July PPI MoM is due at 1230 GMT, with a forecasted rise of 0.2%, while Japan’s Q2 preliminary GDP is set for release at 2350 GMT, expected to grow 0.3% QoQ. On 15 August, the U.S. will announce July retail sales at 1230 GMT, forecast to rise 0.4%, and the August preliminary Michigan consumer sentiment index at 1400 GMT, expected to dip slightly to 60.5.
The previous RBA interest rate stood at 3.85%, while the upcoming decision on 12 August at 0430 GMT is expected to bring it down to 3.60%. This anticipated rate cut reflects growing concerns over a weakening economic outlook, subdued consumer spending, and easing inflationary pressures. Recent data suggests that inflation is gradually retreating toward the RBA’s target range, reducing the need for further monetary tightening. At the same time, slower growth in employment and household consumption adds pressure on the central bank to support the economy through a more accommodative policy stance.
(RBA Interest Rate Decision Chart, Source: Trading Economics)
The U.K. unemployment rate for May was recorded at 4.7%, while the forecast for June is slightly lower at 4.6%. This modest improvement is likely driven by signs of resilience in the labour market, with gradual job creation in key sectors and seasonal employment opportunities supporting hiring activity. Although overall economic growth remains fragile, recent data suggest that businesses are cautiously expanding their workforce in response to stable demand and reduced cost pressures. This supports the expectation of a marginal decline in the unemployment rate for June. This data is set to be released on 12 August at 0600 GMT.
(U.K. Unemployment Rate Chart, Source: Trading Economics)
The U.S. year-over-year inflation rate for June stood at 2.7%, and the forecast for July remains unchanged at 2.7%. This stable expectation reflects a balance between moderating price pressures in energy and goods, and persistent inflation in services such as housing and healthcare. While supply chain disruptions have eased and consumer demand has softened slightly, core inflation remains sticky, keeping the overall rate steady. The Federal Reserve's cautious stance and recent data suggest that inflation is stabilising, but not yet cooling enough to warrant a lower forecast. This data is set to be released on 12 August at 1230 GMT.
(U.S. Inflation Rate YoY Chart, Source: Trading Economics)
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The Australian unemployment rate for June was 4.3%, and our expectation for July is likely to remain steady at around 4.3%. This projection is based on signs of a cooling but still resilient labour market, where job creation has slowed but layoffs remain limited. With the Reserve Bank of Australia maintaining a cautious policy stance and economic growth softening, employers are becoming more selective in hiring without significantly cutting their workforce. Additionally, participation rates have remained relatively stable, supporting the view that unemployment is unlikely to shift dramatically in the short term. This data is set to be released on 14 August at 0130 GMT.
(Australia Unemployment Rate Chart, Source: Trading Economics)
The U.K. GDP month-on-month for May showed a contraction of -0.1%, while the forecast for June points to a modest rebound of 0.1%. This expected uptick is supported by a slight recovery in services activity, improved consumer sentiment, and stabilising industrial output. After a temporary dip in May, partly driven by weaker construction and retail performance, June likely benefited from better weather conditions, stronger demand in travel and hospitality, and easing supply chain constraints. These factors suggest a mild bounce back in economic momentum, justifying the growth expectation. This data is set to be released on 14 August at 0600 GMT.
(U.K. GDP MoM Chart, Source: Trading Economics)
The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) month-on-month was flat at 0% in June, while the expected value for July is a modest increase of 0.2%. This projected rise is likely driven by a slight rebound in input costs, particularly in energy and food prices, along with gradually firming demand in certain manufacturing sectors. Although overall inflation remains contained, underlying producer costs are showing signs of picking up, which could translate into mild upward pressure on wholesale prices. This justifies the forecasted increase in the July PPI. This data is set to be released on 14 August at 1230 GMT.
(U.S. PPI MoM Chart, Source: Trading Economics)
Japan's preliminary GDP growth for Q1 was flat at 0.0% quarter-on-quarter, while the expected value for Q2 is a moderate expansion of 0.3%. This anticipated growth reflects a gradual recovery in domestic consumption and business investment, supported by improving supply chain conditions and stable export demand, particularly from regional trade partners. Government stimulus measures and increased tourism inflows have also contributed to economic activity. Although growth remains modest, these positive drivers support the forecast for a slight pickup in Q2 GDP. This data is set to be released on 14 August at 2350 GMT.
(Japan GDP QoQ Preliminary Chart, Source: Trading Economics)
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U.S. retail sales rose by 0.6% month-on-month in June, while the forecast for July is slightly lower at 0.4%. This expected slowdown reflects a more cautious consumer environment amid lingering inflation concerns and higher interest rates, which continue to weigh on discretionary spending. While core spending remains resilient, especially in essential goods and services, the pace of growth is likely to moderate as households adjust their budgets. As a result, a softer but still positive retail sales figure is anticipated for July. This data is set to be released on 15 August at 1230 GMT.
(U.S. Retail Sales MoM Chart, Source: Trading Economics)
The preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for July came in at 61.7, with the expected value for August slightly lower at 60.5. This anticipated dip reflects growing consumer concerns over persistent inflation in key areas such as housing and services, as well as uncertainty surrounding future interest rate moves. Although sentiment had improved earlier in the year, recent volatility in economic data and a cautious outlook on household finances may be dampening optimism. As a result, a modest decline in consumer sentiment is expected for August. This data is set to be released on 15 August at 1400 GMT.
(U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preliminary Chart, Source: Trading Economics)
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