On Monday, 7 July at 09:00 GMT, the Eurozone will release its Retail Sales YoY for May, expected to slow to 1.5% from 2.3% due to base effects and weak consumer demand. On Tuesday, 8 July at 04:30 GMT, the RBA is expected to cut its cash rate by 25bps to 3.60%, supported by easing inflation and sluggish growth.
On Wednesday, 9 July, China’s Inflation Rate YoY (01:30 GMT) is forecast to fall to -0.3%, reflecting weak domestic demand and deflationary pressures. At 02:00 GMT, the RBNZ is also expected to cut rates to 3.00% amid softening inflation and rising unemployment, while Japan’s PPI YoY at 23:50 GMT is expected to hold steady at 3.2%, supported by input costs and a weak yen.
On Thursday, 10 July at 12:30 GMT, the U.S. Initial Jobless Claims are expected at 260,000, reflecting gradual labour market softening. On Friday, 11 July, the UK’s GDP MoM for May (06:00 GMT) is forecast to rebound to 0.2% after April’s contraction, while Canada’s Unemployment Rate (12:30 GMT) is expected to hold at 7.0%. Full-time Employment Change is projected to ease to 25k, as hiring slows amid economic uncertainty.
Based on the recent data and our internal assessment, we estimate Eurozone retail sales growth may land near 1.5% in May, down from 2.3% in April. This anticipated slowdown is largely due to a higher base of comparison from May 2023, when sales rebounded sharply, making current growth appear more subdued. Additionally, recent data from key economies, such as Germany and France, indicate flat or weaker retail activity, reflecting ongoing softness in consumer spending. While inflationary pressures have eased, high prices for essentials continue to limit real disposable income, particularly for lower-income households. This data is set to be released on 7 July at 0900 GMT.
( Eurozone Retail Sales YoY Chart , Source: Trading Central)
The RBA last cut interest rates by 25 basis points on May 20, 2025, bringing the cash rate to 3.85%. For the upcoming meeting on July 8 at 0430 GMT, markets widely expect another 25-basis-point cut to 3.60%, driven by easing inflation—May’s CPI fell to 2.1% and core inflation to 2.4%, both within the RBA’s target range. Combined with weak GDP growth, subdued consumer spending, and soft business conditions, the economic backdrop supports further policy easing to stimulate activity.
( RBA Interest Rate Decision Chart, Source: Trading Central)
China’s inflation rate YoY came in at -0.1% in May, and the figure for June is expected to decline further to -0.3%. This anticipated drop reflects continued weakness in domestic demand, with consumer spending remaining sluggish despite policy support. Persistent deflationary pressures in key sectors such as food and housing, along with falling producer prices, also contribute to the lower forecast. Moreover, limited pass-through from monetary and fiscal stimulus suggests that inflation may remain negative until a stronger demand-side recovery materialises. This data is set to be released on 9 July at 0130 GMT.
( China Inflation Rate YoY Chart, Source: Trading Central)
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand lowered its Official Cash Rate from 3.50% to 3.25% at its May 28 meeting, and markets expect a further 25‑basis‑point cut to 3.00% at the upcoming July 9 meeting at 0200 GMT. This expected adjustment is driven by a sustained decline in inflation, which has eased closer to the central bank’s 1–3% target range, alongside softening economic growth and rising unemployment. With domestic demand weakening and core inflation indicators losing momentum, the RBNZ is likely to begin a gradual easing cycle to support economic activity while ensuring inflation remains under control.
( RBNZ Interest Rate Decision Chart, Source: Trading Central)
Japan’s Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 3.2% year-on-year in May, and the June figure is expected to remain unchanged at 3.2%. This stable forecast reflects consistent input cost pressures, particularly from energy and raw materials, as global commodity prices have remained relatively steady. Additionally, the weak yen continues to make imports more expensive, supporting elevated producer prices. With no major shifts in supply chain dynamics or external price shocks, the PPI is likely to hold at current levels for now. This data is set to be released on 9 July at 2350 GMT.
( Japan PPI YoY Chart, Source: Trading Central)
The U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week of July 5 are expected to come in at 260,000, reflecting a gradual softening in the labour market. This slightly elevated level aligns with recent trends, which show a steady rise in layoffs, particularly in sectors such as technology and retail, amid cautious business sentiment and slower economic momentum. While the job market remains relatively resilient, the sustained increase in claims suggests that demand for labour is cooling as firms adjust hiring plans in response to tighter financial conditions and moderating consumer demand. This data is set to be released on 10 July at 1230 GMT.
( U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Chart, Source: Trading Central)
The UK GDP MoM for April contracted by -0.3%, and the figure for May is expected to rebound modestly to around 0.2% growth. This expected recovery is supported by a rebound in service activity, particularly in consumer-facing sectors such as retail and hospitality, following poor weather disruptions in April. Additionally, improvements in industrial production and construction output, combined with more stable energy prices, are likely to contribute to a slight pickup in overall economic activity for May. This data is set to be released on 11 July at 0600 GMT.
( U.K. GDP MoM Chart, Source: Trading Central)
Canada’s unemployment rate stood at 7.0% in May, and it is expected to remain unchanged at 7.0% in June. This stable outlook reflects a labour market that continues to cool gradually but has not yet shown signs of significant deterioration. Slower job creation, particularly in the private sector, combined with a growing labour force, has kept the unemployment rate elevated. However, the absence of major layoffs or economic shocks suggests that conditions are stabilising for now, supporting expectations for the rate to hold steady in June. This data is set to be released on 11 July at 1230 GMT.
( Canada Unemployment Rate Chart, Source: Trading Central)
Canada’s full-time employment rose by 57.7k in May, highlighting ongoing labour market strength. However, a decline of around 11k is expected in June, likely reflecting a normalisation after May’s strong gains. While the labour market remains resilient, recent surveys suggest slower job growth in sectors like manufacturing and construction. The lower June forecast indicates that employers may be scaling back on new hires in response to weakening demand and broader economic uncertainty. This data is set to be released on 11 July at 1230 GMT.
( Canada Full Time Employment Change Chart, Source: Trading Central)
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