Week Ahead: BoJ, Fed, SNB, and BoE: How Will They Shape the Market?

This week will be packed with key economic events, starting with U.S. Retail on March 17 at 12:30 GMT. YoY growth is expected to slow to 3.5%, while MoM figures may rebound to 0.5%. On March 18, Canada’s Inflation Rate for February is projected to show a decent increase above the BoC’s 2% target.

March 19 brings major central bank decisions, with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Interest Rate Decision at 00:30 GMT, expected to remain at 0.5%, and the Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision at 18:00 GMT, also anticipated to hold steady at 4.5%. Additionally, New Zealand’s Q4 GDP (QoQ) at 21:45 GMT is forecasted to recover to 0.2% after a -1% contraction.

On March 20, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) at 08:30 GMT is expected to cut rates from 0.5% to 0.25%, while the Bank of England (BoE) at 12:00 GMT will likely keep rates unchanged at 4.5%. Japan’s Inflation Rate for February at 23:30 GMT is expected to stay elevated after January’s 4% rise. Finally, on March 21 at 12:30 GMT, Canada’s Retail Sales (Jan) is projected to increase slightly, reflecting economic adjustments.

Here are the week’s key events:

Monday, 17 March 2025: [12:30 GMT] U.S. Retail Sales YoY Feb

The U.S. retail sales YoY for January stood at 4.2%, with February’s expected growth slowing to 3.5%. Meanwhile, the MoM figure for January was -0.9%, with February’s forecast at 0.5%. This data is set for release on March 17 at 12:30 GMT.

The YoY slowdown likely reflects a combination of factors, including tighter financial conditions due to high interest rates, moderating wage growth, and shifting consumer behavior amid lingering inflationary pressures. However, the expected MoM rebound in February suggests a recovery from January’s sharp decline, likely driven by stabilizing consumer demand, seasonal factors, and potential wage growth supporting spending.

(U.S. Retail Sales YoY Chart, Source: Trading Central)

Top US company earnings: MTN Group (MTNOY), Qifu Tech (QFIN)

Tuesday, 18 March 2025: [12:30 GMT] Canada Inflation Rate YoY Feb

Canada’s inflation rate in January stood at 1.9% YoY, and the YoY value for February is expected to show a decent increase, reflecting ongoing economic adjustments amid the Bank of Canada’s efforts to maintain price stability. This data is set to be released on 18 March at 12:30 GMT. Moreover, looking ahead, market expectations suggest inflation will be above the central bank’s 2% target, with policymakers monitoring key economic indicators to determine future rate decisions.

(Canada Inflation Rate YoY Chart, Source: Trading Central)

Top US company earnings: Xiaomi (XIACY), Xpeng (XPEV)

Wednesday, 19 March 2025: [00:30 GMT] BoJ Interest Rate Decision, [18:00 GMT] Fed Interest Rate Decision, [21:45 GMT] New Zealand GDP Growth Rate QoQ

The Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) previous interest rate decision was 0.5%, and the upcoming release, scheduled for March 19 at 00:30 GMT, is also expected to remain unchanged at 0.5%. The central bank may prefer to maintain accommodative policies to support economic stability. Additionally, concerns over global economic risks and the yen's performance against major currencies likely reinforce the BoJ’s decision to keep rates steady.

(BoJ Interest Rate Decision Chart, Source: Trading Central)

The Federal Reserve’s previous interest rate decision was 4.5%, and the upcoming release, scheduled for March 19 at 18:00 GMT, is also expected to remain unchanged at 4.5%. The Fed will likely keep rates steady as it balances the need for inflation control with economic growth. While inflation has gradually moderated, it remains above the central bank’s 2% target, warranting a cautious approach. Additionally, the labor market remains resilient, reducing the urgency for rate cuts. Therefore, the Fed is expected to maintain its current stance until clearer signs of economic slowdown or disinflation emerge.

(Fed Interest Rate Decision Chart, Source: Trading Central)

New Zealand’s GDP growth rate quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) for the last quarter was -1%, while the upcoming release, scheduled for March 19 at 21:45 GMT, is expected to show a modest recovery at 0.2%. The anticipated rebound reflects a stabilization in economic activity following the previous contraction. Factors contributing to this improvement likely include a recovery in consumer spending, stronger export performance, and government fiscal support.

(New Zealand GDP Growth Rate QoQ Chart, Source: Trading Central)

Top US company earnings: Tencent (TCEHY), General Mills (GIS)

Thursday, 20 March 2025: [08:30 GMT] SNB Interest Rate Decision, [12:00 GMT] BoE Interest Rate Decision, [23:30 GMT] Japan Inflation Rate YoY

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) previously set its interest rate at 0.5%, and the upcoming decision, scheduled for release on March 20 at 08:30 GMT, is expected to see a cut to 0.25%. The SNB's response to reducing inflationary pressures and a slowing economy is reflected in the expected rate cut. To boost economic growth and preserve competitiveness, policymakers may decide to reduce borrowing costs if inflation stays within the central bank's target range. The decision to loosen monetary policy may also be impacted by external variables such as strong Swiss Franc and weaker global demand.

(SNB Interest Rate Decision Chart, Source: Trading Central)

The Bank of England (BoE) previously set its interest rate at 4.5%, and the upcoming decision, scheduled for release on March 20 at 12:00 GMT, is also expected to remain unchanged at 4.5%. While UK inflation has been gradually easing, it remains above the BoE’s 2% target. By maintaining stable interest rates, the central bank can guarantee that inflation keeps declining without triggering economic instability. Furthermore, wages remain relatively strong, which may exacerbate inflationary pressures. Before contemplating rate reduction, the BoE might prefer to observe additional restraint in wage gains.

(BoE Interest Rate Decision Chart, Source: Trading Central)

Japan's year-over-year (YoY) inflation rate stood at 4.0% in January 2025, marking the highest level since January 2023. Moreover, Japan's core inflation has reached a 19-month high, indicating sustained price pressures beyond volatile food and energy components. Therefore, analysts anticipate that inflation will remain elevated for February, with the official data set to be released on March 20 at 23:30 GMT.

(Japan Inflation Rate YoY Chart, Source: Trading Central)

Top US company earnings: Accenture (ACN), Nike (NKE)

Friday, 21 March 2025: [12:30 GMT] Canada Retail Sales YoY

In December 2024, Canada's retail sales increased by 2.5% month-over-month, surpassing expectations and marking a 3.9% year-over-year (YoY) growth. The YoY retail sales value for January is expected to increase to 4.0%. The expected uptick in January’s retail sales growth could be driven by several factors, including continued consumer spending momentum from the holiday season, wage growth, and a resilient labor market.

(Canada Retail Sales YoY Chart, Source: Trading Central)

Top US company earnings: Meituan (MPNGY), Telkom Indonesia (TLK)

When considering shares, indices, forex (foreign exchange) and commodities for trading and price predictions, remember that trading CFDs involves a significant degree of risk and could result in capital loss.

Past performance is not indicative of any future results. This information is provided for informative purposes only and should not be construed to be investment advice. Trading cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets is restricted for all UK retail clients.