Week Ahead: U.S. Inflation Data and BoC Policy Rate in Focus

Key economic events for the week of March 10–14, 2025, including Japan’s Household Spending YoY (Monday, 23:30 GMT), are expected to rise due to post-holiday spending. The U.S. JOLTs Job Openings (Tuesday, 14:00 GMT) may decline slightly amid Fed policy effects, while Japan's PPI YoY (Tuesday, 23:50 GMT) is projected to rise due to higher import costs.

On Wednesday, U.S. Inflation YoY (12:30 GMT) is expected to remain at 3.0%, while the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision (13:45 GMT) may hold at 3.00% amid economic uncertainties. Thursday brings Eurozone Industrial Production MoM (10:00 GMT), expected to rebound, and U.S. PPI YoY (12:30 GMT), which may see a slight uptick. The week ends with the U.K. GDP MoM (Friday, 07:00 GMT), forecasted to slow, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment (14:00 GMT), which is expected to improve due to easing inflation and labor market strength.

Here are the week’s key events:

Monday, 10 March 2025: [23:30 GMT] Japan Household Spending YoY

The expected 3.6% YoY increase in Japan’s household spending for January, up from 2.7% in December. This data is set to be released on 10 March at 23:30 GMT. January often sees increased consumer activity due to post-holiday sales and traditional New Year spending in Japan. Moreover, many companies distribute winter bonuses in December, which may boost consumer spending in January.

(Japan Household Spending YoY Chart, Source: Trading Central)

Top US company earnings: BioNTech (BNTX), Xpeng (XPEV)

Tuesday, 11 March 2025: [14:00] JOLTs Job Openings, [23:50] Japan PPI YoY

The U.S. JOLTs job openings are expected to decline slightly from 7.6M in December to 7.5M in January. This data is set to be released on 11 March at 14:00 GMT. This slight expected drop could be driven by seasonal adjustments after the holiday hiring surge and the impact of the Federal Reserve’s tight monetary policy, which may be restraining business expansion and hiring.

(US JOLTs Job Openings Chart, Source: Trading Central)

The Japan PPI YoY is set to be released on 11 March at 23:50 GMT. The data for January is 4.2%, and the expectations for February might rise due to higher import costs and rising global commodity prices. Moreover, the Yen’s depreciation against major currencies makes imports more expensive, increasing the cost of raw materials and energy for producers.

(Japan PPI YoY Chart, Source: Trading Central)

Top US company earnings: Volkswagen (VWAGY), Ferguson (FERG)

Wednesday, 12 March 2025: [12:30 GMT] U.S. Inflation Rate YoY, [13:45 GMT] BoC Interest Rate Decision

The U.S. inflation rate is set to be released on 12 March at 12:30 GMT. The data for January stood at 3.0% YoY and 0.5% MoM, with February’s expected figures remaining at 3.0% YoY but slightly easing to 0.4% MoM. The slight decline in the MoM inflation rate may be driven by moderating price pressures in key sectors, such as energy prices, which may have stabilised or declined, reducing their contribution to overall inflation. However, the YoY rate remaining unchanged suggests that underlying inflationary pressures persist, possibly due to sticky services inflation and wage growth.

(U.S. Inflation Rate YoY Chart, Source: Trading Central)

The Bank of Canada (BoC) is scheduled to announce its next interest rate decision on March 12 at 13:45 GMT. After being lowered by 25 basis points in January 2025, the policy rate is currently at 3.00%, representing a 200-basis-point decrease since mid-2024. Given the recent strong economic performance, several analysts predict that the BoC may keep the policy rate at 3.00%. Meanwhile, others speculate that the BoC may decide to lower interest rates by 25 basis points to lessen future downturns if the U.S. tariffs are enacted and start to impact Canada's economy negatively.

(BoC Interest Rate Decision Chart, Source: Trading Central)

Top US company earnings: Adobe (ADBE), Inditex (IDEXY)

Thursday, 13 March 2025: [10:00 GMT] Eurozone Industrial Production MoM, [12:30] U.S. PPI YoY

The Eurozone industrial production MoM is set to be released on 13 March at 10:00 GMT. The data fell by 1.1% in December but is expected to rebound by 0.5% in January. This improvement could be driven by a recovery in manufacturing activity after the holiday slowdown, as factories resume full operations and supply chain disruptions ease. Additionally, improved business sentiment and stabilising energy costs may support production growth, encouraging firms to increase output.

(Eurozone Industrial production MoM Chart, Source: Trading Central)

The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) is set to be released on 13 March at 12:30 GMT. The data for January stood at 3.5% YoY and 0.4% MoM, with February’s expected figures rising to 3.6% YoY while remaining steady at 0.4% MoM. The slight increase in the YoY PPI may be driven by rising input costs, particularly in the services sector, where higher wages and supply chain expenses continue to push prices up. However, the unchanged MoM rate suggests that monthly cost increases are stabilising.

(U.S PPI YoY Chart, Source: Trading Central)

Top US company earnings: Oracle (ORCL), AIA Group (AAIGF)

Friday, 14 March 2025: [07:00 GMT] U.K. GDP MoM, [14:00 GMT] Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preliminary

The UK GDP MoM is set to be released on 14 March at 07:00 GMT. The data grew by 0.4% in December, but growth is expected to slow to 0.1% in January. The slowdown may be attributed to reduced consumer spending following the holiday season, as households typically cut back after December’s festive surge. Additionally, business activity may have moderated due to higher borrowing costs and ongoing economic uncertainty, which could be limiting investment and expansion.

(U.K. GDP MoM Chart, Source: Trading Central)

The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index preliminary data is set to be released on 14 March at 14:00 GMT. The data for February stood at 64.7, with expectations for March rising to 67.2. The anticipated improvement in consumer sentiment may be driven by easing inflationary pressures, which can boost household confidence in their financial outlook. Additionally, a resilient labor market with steady job growth and wage gains may support optimism about economic conditions.

(Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preliminary Chart, Source: Trading Central)

Top US company earnings: Hon Hai Precision (HNHPF), Cathay Financial (CHYYY)

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