Stocks Sink on Tariffs, Weak Jobs Data

U.S. stocks tumbled last Friday, with the S&P 500 heading for its sharpest daily loss in over three months. The selloff was driven by two major catalysts: new U.S. tariffs on key trading partners and a weaker-than-expected jobs report for July. President Trump signed an executive order just hours before the tariff deadline, imposing duties on imports from Canada, Brazil, India, and Taiwan, escalating trade tensions and rattling investor confidence. 

Meanwhile, economic data showed a notable slowdown in U.S. job growth, with June’s figures revised sharply lower, fueling concerns that the labour market may be weakening. Adding to the pressure, Amazon shares plunged nearly 9% after the company reported earnings that missed high expectations, particularly in its cloud division, Amazon Web Services. 

(S&P 500 Index Daily Chart, Source: Trading View)

From a technical analysis perspective, the S&P 500 index has been in a bullish trend since April 2025, as evidenced by a series of higher highs and higher lows. Recently, it broke above the consolidation zone of 6,220 – 6,280 with strong bullish momentum, but has since pulled back and is currently retesting that zone. 

The market's reaction within this area will be crucial in determining the index’s next direction in the coming months. If the zone successfully acts as support, the index may continue its bullish movement and push higher. Conversely, if the zone fails to hold, the index could potentially drop further to retest the order block between 6,100 and 6,140.

Is Swiss Inflation Cooling Again in July?

The Switzerland CPI month-over-month (m/m) increased by 0.2% in June 2025, slightly above expectations. This rise was largely driven by seasonal price increases in food, tourism-related services, and some transport categories, which tend to show temporary strength during the summer period. However, the underlying inflation trend remains weak, as annual inflation continues to hover near zero, reflecting subdued domestic demand and a stable franc.

Looking ahead, the CPI for July 2025 is expected to fall by –0.2% m/m. This data is set to be released today at 0630 GMT. This anticipated drop is mainly due to seasonal price corrections, especially in travel, accommodation, and certain food categories that typically retreat after the peak holiday season. Additionally, falling energy prices and continued soft consumer sentiment further justify deflationary expectations. These factors align with Switzerland's broader low-inflation environment and support the view that price pressures remain limited.

(USD/CHF Daily Chart, Source: Trading View)

From a technical analysis perspective, the USD/CHF currency pair has been in a bearish trend since mid-January 2025, as indicated by a series of lower highs and lower lows. Recently, the pair rebounded from the support zone of 0.7880 – 0.7920, with a double bottom candlestick pattern reinforcing the bullish momentum and driving the price up toward the swap zone of 0.8160 – 0.8200. 

However, strong bearish pressure at that zone rejected further upside, pushing the pair back down to retest the order block at 0.8025 – 0.8050. If this zone successfully holds as support, the pair may resume its bullish move and retest the swap zone. Conversely, if it fails, the pair could decline further toward the previous support zone.

Oil Slips as OPEC+ Lifts Output, U.S. Demand Worries Grow

Oil prices continued to decline on Monday during the Asian trading session after OPEC+ confirmed a significant production increase for September. The group, comprising the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, agreed to raise output by 547,000 barrels per day, citing strong economic performance and low inventory. This latest move aligns with market expectations and represents the full reversal of previous major output cuts, including an additional increase for the UAE. Altogether, the changes equate to roughly 2.5 million barrels per day, or 2.4% of global demand, as OPEC+ aims to reclaim lost market share.

Adding to the downward pressure, oil and gasoline prices tumbled sharply last Friday amid concerns over weakening global energy demand. This followed disappointing U.S. economic data, including lower-than-expected July payrolls and ISM manufacturing figures, along with growing fears over President Trump's tariff policies. Worries about a slowing U.S. economy, the world’s largest oil consumer, have further fueled bearish sentiment in the energy markets.

(Crude Oil Futures Daily Chart, Source: Trading View)

From a technical analysis perspective, crude oil futures recently retested the swap zone of 64.10 – 64.80, found support, and continued to move higher. However, the price was rejected by the ascending trend line, as indicated by the white dotted line, preventing further upside. It may potentially pull back to the swap zone to determine its next directional move.