Global stocks climbed to record highs for the second consecutive session on Thursday, while the U.S. dollar strengthened following a stronger-than-expected jobs report. The Labor Department reported that nonfarm payrolls rose by 147,000 in June, exceeding forecasts of 110,000. May’s figure was also revised higher to 144,000, signaling that the labor market may not be weakening as quickly as previously thought.
The upbeat data prompted markets to scale back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. According to LSEG data, the probability of a rate cut at the upcoming meeting has dropped to nearly zero, while expectations for a September cut have fallen to around 75%, down from nearly 98% before the report. In response, major U.S. indexes rallied: the Dow Jones rose 344.11 points (0.77%) to 44,828.53, the S&P 500 gained 51.93 points (0.83%) to 6,279.35, and the Nasdaq advanced 207.97 points (1.02%) to 20,601.10.
(S&P 500 Index Daily Price Chart, Source: Trading View)
From a technical analysis perspective, the S&P 500 index has been rebounding from the support zone of 4,900 – 4,960 since early April 2025, as evidenced by the formation of higher highs and higher lows. Recently, it broke above the resistance zone of 6,100 – 6,140, forming a new higher high. With such a strong breakout and sustained bullish momentum, the index may continue its upward trajectory unless a significant bearish reversal pattern or confluence of signals suggests a potential pullback.
Switzerland’s June inflation report has eased expectations for further rate cuts by the Swiss National Bank (SNB). Consumer prices rose 0.1%, reversing May’s decline and marking a three-month high, bringing inflation back within the SNB’s 0 – 2% target range. Following the June rate cut to 0% aimed at stemming franc inflows, policymakers are now expected to hold steady at the upcoming September meeting.
Therefore, market generally expects the rates will remain at 0% through 2026, as inflation is likely to rise further due to food and wage pressures. Officials have also cautioned against pushing rates into negative territory again, warning of potential harm to savers, banks, and pension funds.
(USD/CHF Daily Chart, Source: Trading View)
From a technical analysis perspective, the USD/CHF currency pair has been trending lower, as reflected by the formation of lower highs and lower lows. Recently, the pair broke below the order block at 0.8055 – 0.8085 with strong bearish momentum, confirmed by a series of consecutive bearish candlesticks. This sustained downward pressure suggests that bearish momentum remains in control and could potentially drive the pair even lower.
WTI crude oil futures inched up to $67 per barrel on Friday during Asian trading session after the U.S. introduced new measures to tighten control over Iranian oil exports, increasing pressure on Tehran. On Thursday, both the U.S. Treasury and State Departments unveiled separate sanctions targeting a network of entities and a "shadow Fleet" of vessels that help facilitate and transport Iranian crude.
However, gains were capped by expectations that OPEC+ may agree to restore an additional 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August during its upcoming meeting on Sunday. Meanwhile, crude prices found some support from a recent trade agreement between the U.S. and Vietnam, although broader uncertainty remains as key partners like the EU and Japan have yet to finalize trade deals ahead of the July 9 tariff pause deadline.
(Crude Oil Futures Daily Chart, Source: Trading View)
From a technical analysis perspective, crude oil futures have rebounded from the previous daily bullish engulfing candlestick at the support zone around the 64.70 level, as well as from a strong order block of 64.00 – 64.70, both indicating that bullish momentum may be regaining control. However, it is important to wait and observe whether this is just a bullish move aimed at filling the imbalances left by the previous aggressive bearish momentum, or if the bulls are truly reclaiming dominance.
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