According to a survey by the Wall Street Journal, economists believe the economic consequences of President Trump's policies may not be as dire as initially feared. Current forecasts suggest stronger economic growth and job creation, with a lower risk of recession and more moderate inflation.
This positive shift is attributed to the easing of threats to impose tariffs on key US trading partners. However, trade uncertainty continues to loom over the economic landscape, as trade tensions remain with several countries.
Despite the slight improvement in the outlook, economists remain relatively cautious, likely due to continued trade uncertainty and lackluster growth so far. They forecast GDP growth of 1% in the fourth quarter, up from the previous forecast of 0.8%, but still less than half the January expectation.
In addition, the probability of a recession in the next 12 months remains relatively high at 33%. These figures reflect continued caution about the economic outlook.
Despite the challenges, the US economy is showing remarkable resilience. Consumers are still spending, although the overall mood has shifted from boldness to caution. Recent economic data indicate improved job growth and a decline in the unemployment rate.
However, concerns remain about the impact of tariffs on inflation and the behavior of consumers and businesses. In addition, it may take some time for the effects of other Trump policies, such as the crackdown on illegal immigration and tax cuts, to trickle down to the real economy.
Some economists point out that immigration has provided significant momentum for economic growth in recent years. However, tightening immigration policies may hinder this growth in the future.
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