Week Ahead: Inflation Data from U.S., Canada, and U.K. Take Centre Stage

The economic calendar for the week starting Monday, 14 July 2025, begins quietly, with no major releases scheduled that day. On Tuesday, 15 July, attention turns to several high-impact events: the China GDP Growth Rate at 02:00 GMT, followed by key inflation figures from the U.S. (12:30 GMT) and Canada (12:30 GMT). These releases will offer critical insight into global inflation trends and economic momentum. U.S. banking giants JPMorgan and Wells Fargo are also set to report earnings.

On Wednesday, 16 July, markets will watch for the U.K. Inflation Rate at 06:00 GMT, U.S. PPI at 12:30 GMT, and Japan’s Balance of Trade at 23:50 GMT, with earnings from J&J and Bank of America also due. Thursday, 17 July, will see a flurry of data, including Australia’s Employment Change (01:30 GMT), Eurozone Inflation (09:00 GMT), U.S. Retail Sales (12:30 GMT), and Japan’s Inflation Rate (23:30 GMT). Key earnings include TSMC and Netflix. Finally, on Friday, 18 July, the U.S. will release Building Permits and Housing Starts, both at 12:30 GMT, which will provide further clues on the state of the American housing market.

Monday, 14 July 2025: No Significant Economic Events

Tuesday, 15 July 2025: [02:00 GMT] China GDP Growth Rate YoY Q2, [12:30 GMT] U.S. Inflation Rate YoY June, [12:30 GMT] Canada Inflation Rate YoY June

China's GDP grew by 5.4% year-over-year in Q1 2025, but growth is expected to slow to 4.1% in Q2. This anticipated deceleration is mainly due to the fading impact of the low base effect and early-year stimulus that boosted Q1 figures. In contrast, Q2 faces headwinds from a still-weak property sector, softer consumer confidence, and slowing export demand amid global uncertainties. Additionally, policymakers are adopting a more cautious stance on stimulus, focusing on long-term stability over aggressive short-term growth. This data is set to be released on 15 July at 0200 GMT.

(China GDP Growth Rate YoY Chart, Source: Trading Economics)

The U.S. inflation rate came in at 2.4% year-over-year in May, with the upcoming reading expected to edge slightly higher to 2.5%. This mild uptick is likely due to lingering price pressures in services, particularly shelter and healthcare, which remain sticky despite progress in goods disinflation. Additionally, recent increases in energy prices and resilient consumer demand may contribute to the upward adjustment, keeping inflation slightly above the Fed’s 2% target. This data is set to be released on 15 July at 1230 GMT.

(U.S. Inflation Rate YoY Chart, Source: Trading Economics)

Canada’s inflation rate stood at 1.7% year-over-year in May, but the upcoming reading is expected to ease to 1.5%. This projected decline is largely driven by continued weakness in energy prices, base effects from last year’s higher readings, and subdued consumer demand amid high interest rates. With core inflation also trending lower, markets anticipate further disinflationary momentum, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of Canada may stay on a dovish policy path. This data is set to be released on 15 July at 1230 GMT.

(Canada Inflation Rate YoY Chart, Source: Trading Economics)

Top US company earnings: JPMorgan (JPM), Wells Fargo&Co (WFC)

Wednesday, 16 July 2025: [06:00 GMT] U.K. Inflation Rate YoY June, [12:30 GMT] U.S. PPI MoM June, [11:50 GMT] Japan Balance of Trade May

The U.K.'s inflation rate was 3.4% year-over-year in May, and it's expected to rise to 3.7% in June. This anticipated increase is likely due to a rebound in energy prices and persistent upward pressure in services inflation, particularly in housing, transportation, and hospitality. Seasonal factors and higher wage growth may also be contributing to the short-term uptick, potentially complicating the Bank of England’s path toward achieving its 2% target. This data is set to be released on 16 July at 0600 GMT.

(U.K. Inflation Rate YoY Chart, Source: Trading Economics)

The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.1% month-over-month in May, with the June reading expected to accelerate to 0.3%. This anticipated increase is likely driven by higher energy and commodity prices, as well as ongoing cost pressures in the services and transportation sectors. A pickup in supply chain activity and resilient demand in certain sectors may also be contributing to the stronger PPI outlook, signalling potential upstream inflationary pressure. This data is set to be released on 16 July at 1230 GMT.

(U.S. PPI MoM Chart, Source: Trading Economics)

Japan’s trade balance posted a deficit of ¥637.6 billion in May, but the June figure is expected to narrow significantly to a ¥100 billion deficit. This improvement is likely driven by a rebound in exports, particularly in automobiles and electronics, alongside a seasonal decline in energy imports. Additionally, a slightly weaker yen may have supported export competitiveness, helping to reduce the overall trade gap. This data is set to be released on 16 July at 2350 GMT.

(Japan Balance of Trade Chart, Source: Trading Economics)

Top US company earnings: J&J (JNJ), Bank of America (BAC)

Thursday, 17 July 2025: [01:30 GMT] Australia Employment Change June, [09:00 GMT] Eurozone Inflation Rate YoY Final June, [12:30 GMT] U.S. Retail Sales MoM June, [11:30 GMT] Japan Inflation Rate YoY June

Australia’s employment change came in at -2.5K in May, but a strong rebound is expected in June with a forecast of +25K. This optimistic outlook likely reflects a correction from the previous month's unexpected decline, which may have been distorted by seasonal or statistical noise. June typically sees stronger hiring activity, and recent business surveys suggest steady labour demand, particularly in services and construction, supporting expectations of a solid job recovery. This data is set to be released on 17 July at 0130 GMT.

(Australia Employment Change Chart, Source: Trading Economics)

The Eurozone's final inflation rate for May was 1.9% year-over-year, with the June figure expected to tick slightly higher to 2.0%. This modest increase is likely due to steady price pressures in services and food, as well as recent rises in energy costs. The uptick also reflects a normalisation trend as inflation gradually aligns with the European Central Bank’s 2% target, suggesting that underlying price momentum remains stable despite broad disinflation progress. This data is set to be released on 17 July at 0900 GMT.

(Eurozone Inflation Rate YoY Final Chart, Source: Trading Economics)

U.S. retail sales fell by 0.9% month-over-month in May, but a modest rebound of 0.2% is expected for June. This projected recovery is likely driven by stabilising consumer sentiment, stronger spending in services, and seasonal factors such as summer travel and back-to-school preparation. The sharp drop in May may have been an anomaly influenced by weaker discretionary spending, and June's forecast suggests a return to more normalised consumer activity. This data is set to be released on 17 July at 1230 GMT.

(U.S. Retail Sales MoM Chart, Source: Trading Economics)

Japan’s inflation rate was 3.5% year-over-year in May, with the June figure expected to rise slightly to 3.7%. This anticipated increase is likely driven by persistent cost pressures in food and energy, alongside the impact of a weaker yen, which raises import prices. Additionally, ongoing wage hikes and pass-through effects from higher input costs are contributing to the gradual upward trend in consumer prices. This data is set to be released on 17 July at 23:30 GMT.

(Japan Inflation Rate YoY Chart, Source: Trading Economics)

Top US company earnings: Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Netflix (NFLX)

Friday, 18 July 2025: [12:30 GMT] U.S. Building Permits Preliminary June, [12:30 GMT] U.S. Housing Starts

U.S. preliminary building permits totalled 1.394 million in May, with June’s figure expected to edge down to 1.37 million. This slight decline likely reflects cooling demand in the housing market amid elevated mortgage rates and persistent affordability challenges. Builders may also be showing caution due to economic uncertainty and higher construction costs, leading to a more measured pace of new project approvals. This data is set to be released on 18 July at 12:30 GMT.

(U.S. Building Permits Preliminary Chart, Source: Trading Economics)

U.S. housing starts came in at 1.256 million in May, with June’s figure expected to rise to 1.29 million. This projected increase suggests a modest rebound as homebuilders respond to steady demand, particularly in the single-family segment. Although high mortgage rates remain a headwind, improving supply chain conditions and seasonal construction activity during the summer months may be supporting the expected uptick. This data is set to be released on 18 July at 12:30 GMT.

(U.S. Housing Starts Chart, Source: Trading Economics)

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