Week Ahead: U.S. Inflation Data in Spotlight

During the week of 12–16 May 2025, key economic data from the U.S., U.K., Canada, and Australia are scheduled for release, alongside notable earnings reports. On Monday, 12 May at 18:00 GMT, the U.S. Monthly Budget Statement is expected to show a surplus of $235 billion in April, reversing the $161 billion deficit from March due to seasonal tax inflows. On Tuesday, 13 May, the U.K. unemployment rate (expected unchanged at 4.4%) is set for release at 06:00 GMT, followed by U.S. inflation data at 12:30 GMT, with April CPI projected to rise to 2.6% YoY, reflecting persistent service-sector price pressures.

Midweek, data focus shifts to Canada and Australia. On Wednesday, 14 May at 12:30 GMT, Canada’s building permits are expected to decline by 0.3% MoM after a strong February gain. Thursday, 15 May brings three major releases: Australia’s unemployment rate (expected to remain steady at 4.1%) at 01:30 GMT, U.K. GDP (forecast to slow to 0.1% MoM) at 06:00 GMT, and the U.S. PPI at 12:30 GMT, with April’s YoY figure expected to rise to 3.1%. The week ends on Friday, 16 May at 12:30 GMT, with U.S. housing starting, which is anticipated to fall modestly by 1% after March’s sharp 11.4% drop.

Monday, 12 May 2025: [18:00 GMT] U.S. Monthly Budget Statement

The U.S. monthly budget statement showed a deficit of $161 billion in March, while April is expected to post a surplus of $235 billion. This anticipated shift is largely due to seasonal factors, particularly the surge in tax receipts around the mid-April filing deadline. April typically sees a significant increase in individual and corporate tax payments, temporarily boosting government revenues and often resulting in a monthly surplus despite broader fiscal imbalances. This data is set to be released on 12 May at 1800 GMT.

(U.S. Monthly Budget Statement Chart, Source: Trading Central)

Top US company earnings: Constellation Software (CNSWF), Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR)

Tuesday, 13 May 2025: [06:00 GMT] U.K. Unemployment Rate, [12:30 GMT] U.S. Inflation Rate YoY

The U.K. unemployment rate stood at 4.4% in February, and the same rate is expected for March. This stable forecast reflects a labour market that, while showing signs of softening amid broader economic uncertainty, remains relatively resilient. Employers are likely holding on to workers despite sluggish growth, supported by cautious optimism and ongoing structural labour shortages in certain sectors, which helps maintain a steady unemployment rate. This data is set to be released on 13 May at 0600 GMT.

(U.K. Unemployment Rate Chart, Source: Trading Central)

The U.S. inflation rate rose by 0.1% month-over-month in March, with April's figure expected to increase slightly to 0.2%. On a year-over-year basis, inflation was 2.4% in March and is projected to rise to 2.6% in April. These expectations reflect persistent underlying price pressures, particularly in services and housing, alongside a resilient consumer demand environment. The anticipated uptick also accounts for base effects, as lower inflation readings from the same period last year roll out of the annual calculation, thereby pushing the year-over-year figure higher. This data is set to be released on 13 May at 1230 GMT.

(U.S. Inflation Rate YoY Chart, Source: Trading Central)

Top US company earnings: Sea (SE), SoftBank Group (SFTBY)

Wednesday, 14 May 2025: [12:30 GMT] Canada building Permits MoM

Canada's building permits rose 2.9% month-over-month in February, but March is expected to show a slight decline of 0.3%. This projected pullback likely reflects a normalisation following February’s strong rebound, along with seasonal adjustments and ongoing economic headwinds such as high interest rates and tighter credit conditions. These factors may have dampened new construction intentions, leading to the modest decline forecast for March. This data is set to be released on 14 May at 1230 GMT.

(Canada Building Permits MoM Chart, Source: Trading Central)

Top US company earnings: Tencent (TCEHY), Cisco (CSCO)

Thursday, 15 May 2025: [01:30 GMT] Australia Unemployment Rate, [06:00 GMT] U.K. GDP MoM, [12:30 GMT] U.S. PPI YoY

Australia’s unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% in March, and the same rate is expected for April. This stable outlook reflects a labour market that remains relatively balanced, with job gains and workforce participation levels offsetting each other. While economic growth has slowed, strong population growth and ongoing demand in key sectors are helping to maintain employment levels, keeping the unemployment rate unchanged for now. This data is set to be released on 15 May at 0130 GMT.

(Australia Unemployment Rate Chart, Source: Trading Central)

The U.K.'s GDP grew by 0.5% month-over-month in February, but growth is expected to slow to 0.1% in March. This anticipated deceleration likely reflects a normalisation after February’s strong rebound, which was driven by temporary factors such as improved weather conditions and a pickup in services. In contrast, March’s forecast suggests softer economic momentum amid lingering cost pressures and weak consumer sentiment, which continue to weigh on overall activity. This data is set to be released on 15 May at 0600 GMT.

(U.K. GDP MoM Chart, Source: Trading Central)

The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) declined by 0.4% month-over-month in March, while year-over-year it rose by 2.7%. For April, PPI is expected to increase by 0.2% monthly and 3.1% year-over-year. This projected rebound reflects a return to more typical pricing dynamics after March's unexpected monthly drop, which was likely driven by volatile components such as energy or trade services. The year-over-year rise to 3.1% also suggests persistent upstream cost pressures, as base effects from last year fade and input prices gradually firm in response to stable demand and supply chain normalisation. This data is set to be released on 15 May at 1230 GMT.

(U.S. PPI YoY Chart, Source: Trading Central)

Top US company earnings: Walmart (WMT), Alibaba (BABA)

Friday, 16 May 2025: [12:30 GMT] U.S. Housing Starts MoM

U.S. housing starts fell sharply by 11.4% month-over-month in March, but the decline is expected to ease to just 1% in April. This more moderate drop reflects a likely stabilisation in residential construction activity following the steep pullback in March, which may have been influenced by weather disruptions or permit volatility. While high mortgage rates and affordability challenges continue to weigh on the housing market, underlying demand and a slight rebound in builder sentiment may help limit further declines in the near term. This data is set to be released on 16 May at 1230 GMT.

(U.S. Housing Starts MoM Chart, Source: Trading Central)

Top US company earnings: Compagnie Financier Richemont (CFRUY), Swiss Re (SSREY)

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