Morning Note: U.S. Retail Data, XRP Whale Activity, and Euro Gains

Investors Await U.S Retail Sales Data

The U.S. retail sales data for January showed a year-over-year (y/y) increase of 4.2%, while the month-over-month (m/m) figure declined by 0.9%. Expectations suggest a slowdown for February, with y/y growth projected at 3.5% and m/m growth rebounding to 0.5%. This data is set to be released at 12:30 GMT.

The expected moderation in y/y growth likely reflects base effects from strong consumer spending in early 2024, coupled with a gradual normalisation in demand as the impact of previous fiscal stimulus fades. Meanwhile, the m/m rebound of 0.5% suggests a recovery from January’s decline, potentially driven by factors such as seasonal adjustments, improved weather conditions, or a temporary boost from discount-driven sales events.

(U.S. Dollar Index Daily Chart, Source: Trading View)

From a technical analysis perspective, the overall trend of the U.S. Dollar Index has been bullish since the end of September 2024, as indicated by the formation of higher highs and higher lows. However, the index began to decline in early February 2025, marked by a significant double-top candlestick pattern.

Recently, strong downward momentum has driven the price lower, signalling a valid trend reversal from bullish to bearish. The index has rebounded slightly from the support zone of 103.00 – 103.20. If it fails to break above the swap zone of 104.00 – 104.30 in the near term, bearish momentum may regain control, pushing the index lower.

150 Million XRP Scooped Up by Whales in 48 Hours

Recently, Santiment on-chain data suggests that whales have purchased over 150 million XRP in the last 48 hours. This large-scale buying is part of a broader trend where whales and institutional players purchase XRP during market downturns. In the past, these accumulation periods have marked significant price increases due to long-term investors taking advantage of these periods.

(Ripple Price Daily Chart, Source: Trading View)

From a technical analysis perspective, Ripple's price has been in a bearish trend since mid-January, as indicated by the formation of lower highs and lower lows within a descending channel. Recently, the price found support in the 1.90 – 2.05 zone, with a significant liquidity sweep indicating strong bullish momentum. As a result, it may potentially continue surging upward to retest the upper boundary of the descending channel.

Euro Gains on German Fiscal Agreement

The euro rose against the US dollar last Friday after German parties reached a fiscal agreement aimed at boosting defence spending and revitalising Europe's largest economy. Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz confirmed he had secured the Greens' support for a substantial increase in state borrowing. The deal, which includes a €500 billion infrastructure fund and significant reforms to borrowing rules, is expected to pass the outgoing parliament next week.

(EUR/USD Daily Chart, Source: Trading View)

From a technical analysis perspective, the EUR/USD currency pair has been in a bearish trend since late September 2024, as indicated by the formation of lower highs and lower lows. However, it found strong support and rebounded at the beginning of January 2025.

Recently, significant bullish momentum pushed the rate upward, but it was rejected at the resistance zone of 1.0920–1.0950. It then found support at the swap zone of 1.0810 – 1.0840, rebounding into the range between the resistance and swap zones. A decisive break of either zone could potentially determine the next directional move.

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Past performance is not indicative of any future results. This information is provided for informative purposes only and should not be construed to be investment advice.