Morning Note: US Jobs Data, Oil Steady on Tariffs, MicroStrategy BTC Bet

U.S. ADP Job Growth is Expected to Decrease

The U.S. ADP employment change for February came in at 77K, while the expected figure for March is 60K. This data is set to be released on 2 April at 12:15 GMT. The lower forecast suggests a potential slowdown in job growth, possibly due to seasonal factors, softer labour demand, or broader economic uncertainties. Employers may be exercising caution in hiring amid concerns over interest rates, inflation, and overall economic conditions, leading to more conservative job additions than the previous month.

(U.S Dollar Index Daily Chart, Source: Trading View)

From a technical analysis perspective, the overall trend of the U.S. Dollar Index has been bullish since the end of September 2024, as indicated by the formation of higher highs and higher lows. However, the index began to decline in early February 2025, marked by a significant double-top candlestick pattern. Currently, the index is oscillating between the resistance zone of 104.10 – 104.30 and the support zone of 103.00 – 103.20. A decisive break on either side might lead the index to move in the direction of the breakout.

Oil Prices Steady on Trump Tariffs

Oil continued to find support from Trump's recent threat of secondary duties on Russian oil and increased sanctions on Iran as part of his maximum pressure campaign to curb exports. The White House did not disclose details on the size or scope of the tariffs but stated they would take effect immediately after being unveiled on Wednesday. Moreover, President Trump also suggested the levies would impact many countries, raising concerns about a potential economic fallout that could reduce energy demand.

(U.S Crude Oil Futures Price Daily Chart, Source: Trading View)

From a technical analysis perspective, the crude oil futures price has rebounded from the support zone of 66.20 – 66.60 with bullish momentum. This valid bullish structure may lead the price to retest the swap zone of 72.80 – 73.20. If it can break above this level, it may potentially surge higher. Conversely, if it gets rejected from that zone with significant bearish momentum, it could trigger a downward move.

MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Bet Grows: $1.92 Billion Spent on 22K BTC

MicroStrategy is doubling down on Bitcoin again. Between March 24 and March 30, the company picked up another 22,048 BTC at an average price of $86,969, spending $1.92 billion. The funds came from a mix of common stock and preferred share offerings, showing that Michael Saylor's Bitcoin conviction isn’t just holdings accelerating. With this move, Strategy now owns a jaw-dropping 528,185 Bitcoin, worth about $35.63 billion, and remains the undisputed corporate king of BTC.

(Bitcoin Price Daily Chart, Source: Trading View)

From a technical analysis perspective, the Bitcoin price has switched to a bearish trend since mid-January 2025, as indicated by the double-top candlestick pattern and the lower highs and lower lows pattern within the descending channel. Recently, the price was rejected from the upper boundary of the descending channel, potentially driving it downwards to retest the support zone at 77,800 – 79,200.

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