Morning Note: Dollar Near Lows on Tariffs; US Eyes AI Chip Curbs; Ethereum’s Future

Tariff Countdown Pressures U.S. Dollar

The U.S. dollar remained near multi-year lows on Monday during the Asian trading session, marking its weakest level since 2021 against the euro and its lowest since 2015 against the Swiss franc, as markets braced for potential trade-related headlines ahead of President Donald Trump’s looming tariff deadline. Most of America’s trade partners are expected to face significantly higher tariffs after the expiration of Trump’s 90-day moratorium on his so-called "Liberation Day" reciprocal tariffs this Wednesday. So far, only Britain, China, and Vietnam have reached any form of trade agreement with the U.S.

Trump stated on Friday that he would name around a dozen countries on Monday that have received formal notices about the new, elevated tariff rates, which are expected to take effect on August 1. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also hinted at several major announcements in the coming days. However, unlike past surprises where tariff levels exceeded market expectations, the current measures appear to be mostly priced in. Markets are also factoring in the possibility of further deadline extensions.

(U.S. Dollar Index Daily Chart, Source: Trading View)

From a technical analysis perspective, the U.S. Dollar Index has been trending lower since January 2025, as reflected by a consistent pattern of lower highs and lower lows. Recently, the index broke below the previous low at the 97.13 level, continuing its decline and forming a new lower low. This confirmed bearish structure may continue to pressure the index downward until a significant bullish momentum emerges to reverse the trend.

Trump Targets AI Chip Exports to Asia

The Trump administration is reportedly preparing new export restrictions on advanced AI chips, including those produced by Nvidia, aimed at Malaysia and Thailand. According to Bloomberg News, which cited sources familiar with the matter, the move stems from concerns that these technologies could ultimately be rerouted to China. The draft regulation, currently under review by the U.S. Commerce Department, has not been finalised and remains subject to change.

This proposed policy marks a shift from the existing export curbs introduced during former President Biden's term. The Trump administration has indicated its intention to revoke and replace those measures with stricter controls. The overarching goal remains the same: to limit China’s access to cutting-edge artificial intelligence technology, retain computing advantages within the U.S. and allied nations, and reinforce tech-related national security efforts.

(Nvidia Daily Share Price Chart, Source: Trading View)

From a technical analysis perspective, Nvidia’s share price has been in a bullish trend since April 2025, marked by the formation of higher highs and higher lows. Recently, the price broke above the order block between 148 and 153, pulled back to retest the zone, found support, and continued to surge upward. This confirmed bullish structure may continue to drive the price higher, unless a significant bearish force emerges to reverse the trend.

Ethereum at the Core of Tokenisation’s Future?

A leading voice in the investment product space has made a compelling statement: being bullish on stablecoins and tokenised assets is, in essence, a bet on Ethereum. Nate Geraci, president of the ETF Store, argues that Ethereum plays a central role in the evolving financial ecosystem, and its growing importance shouldn’t be underestimated.

As tokenisation moves from concept to real-world application, particularly within banks and asset management firms, Ethereum is solidifying its position as the preferred infrastructure for deploying and settling tokenised assets. Its established ecosystem, deep liquidity, and developer tooling give it a structural edge. Geraci also pushed back against the idea that the underlying platform doesn't matter, emphasising that institutions are making clear choices, and Ethereum is increasingly the one they trust.

(Ethereum Daily Price Chart, Source: Trading View)

From a technical analysis perspective, Ethereum's price oscillated within a consolidation zone from mid-April to May 2025, and broke above it with strong bullish momentum on 8 May 2025, followed by continued upward movement. However, the price has since entered another consolidation phase, during which two fake breakouts can be observed. The first was a false bullish breakout aimed to raid the previous buy-side liquidity, leaving a new high liquidity point at the 2,877.47 level. The second was a false bearish breakout intended to raid the previous sell-side liquidity, establishing a new low liquidity point at 2,115.08.

It’s important to remain cautious of another potential fake breakout. Once the price raids either of these newly formed liquidity levels, we should closely observe whether the move is followed by strong momentum in that direction. If so, it may potentially indicate a genuine breakout.

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