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Deutsche Bank downgrades Netflix shares despite stellar Q4
Analyst at Deutsche Bank says market has priced in Netflix’s leading position
Despite Netflix recently posting impressive earnings, Deutsche Bank has opted to downgrade its rating on NFLX shares from buy to hold, while simultaneously raising the price target from $460 to $525.
On Wednesday, the company’s share price surged by over 10% to $549 after the Netflix earnings report revealed that the company had added over 13 million subscribers in Q4 last year, blowing by its own estimates and marking its best-ever fourth quarter in terms of new subscriptions.
In a research note cited by MarketWatch, Bryan Craft, a Deutsche Bank analyst, wrote:
“Netflix is still the best story in media among the vertically integrated producers/programmers/distributors”.
“However, we think that Netflix’s leadership position is fully priced into the stock at these levels with Netflix trading at 32x 2024E / 27x 2025E EPS, which we see as leaving little room for multiple expansion given what we think will be peak EPS growth in 2024 (at 38%); decelerating to 21% and 16% in 2025 and 2026, respectively”.
The analyst note mentioned that there would still be some positive impact on 2024 results from the crackdown on password sharing but emphasized that the easily achievable gains have already been realized.
Advertising is still in its early days and “2024 will be more about growing the ads tier base and building out the international sales effort than scaling ad revenue in a meaningful way,” he said.
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Netflix shares soar after earnings report
Netflix shares, which closed at $544.87 (up 10.7%) on Wednesday, are up 0.82% in premarket trading as of 13:30 GMT on Thursday.
Given yesterday’s gains, Netflix stock, which trades on the Nasdaq stock exchange under the ticker NFLX, has risen by close to 35% over the past three months, and gained 49.33% on a 12-month basis.
NFLX stock has also beat out several key indices, namely the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average. The benchmark S&P500 stock index showed growth of 17.68% and 19.9% in the same periods respectively, while the Dow showcased slightly lower figures of 15.32% and 11.36%.
Majority of analysts still upbeat in Netflix share price forecasts
A number of analysts raised their forecasts for the Netflix stock price around the time of the earnings call, namely BofA Securities’ Jessica Reif Ehrlich and Keybanc Capital Markets’ Justin Patterson.
Ehrlich raised her Netflix price target to $585 (from $525) and reiterated a Buy rating, while Patterson bumped up his NFLX price target to $545 (from $525) and kept his Overweight rating.
According to 38 analysts surveyed by TipRanks that offered 12-month Netflix stock price targets, the consensus forecast for NFLX last stood at $567.19 — a potential 4% upside from its last closing price as of January 25, 2024.
The highest listed Netflix share price forecast on TipRanks was $700.00, while the lowest was listed at $375.00. Of the 38 analysts surveyed, 26 offered a Buy rating on NFLX stock, while 11 had it as a Hold, and one gave it a Sell rating.
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Past performance is not indicative of any future results. This information is provided for informative purposes only and should not be construed to be investment advice.
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