Morning Note: US Producer Prices Eyed; Earnings Spotlight on Walmart & Alibaba

Will April PPI Confirm Cooling Inflation Trend?

In March, the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 2.7% year-over-year, while prices declined by 0.4% on a month-over-month basis. For April, economists expect the YoY PPI to ease slightly to 2.6% and the MoM figure to rebound to 0.2%. This forecast reflects expectations of stabilizing producer costs following March's unusually broad-based decline, which was driven by falling energy and goods prices. The anticipated moderation in the annual rate and the monthly uptick suggest underlying inflation pressures remain contained but not entirely dissipated. This data is set to be released today at 12:30 GMT.

(U.S Dollar Index Daily Chart, Source: Trading View)
From a technical analysis perspective, the U.S. Dollar Index has rebounded since April 21, 2025, and continues to trend upward, as indicated by a series of higher highs and higher lows. Recently, it was rejected from the resistance zone of 101.30 – 101.60, pushing the index downward. However, it quickly rebounded after touching the swap zone between 99.80 and 100.10. If the index can break above the resistance zone, it may potentially move higher to retest the order block between 101.70 and 103.00. Conversely, if it breaks below the swap zone, a further decline may follow.

Walmart Earnings in Focus as Traffic Rises

Walmart Inc. (WMT) is scheduled to release its first-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings today, before the market opens. The quarterly revenue estimate is $165.6 billion, representing a 2.5% increase from the same period last year. However, the consensus estimate for earnings per share has been revised downward by one cent over the past week to $0.57, signalling a 5% decline compared to the year-ago quarter.
The retail giant continues to showcase the strength of its highly diversified business model, with consistent performance across segments, geographies, and both physical and digital channels. Increased customer traffic in stores and online highlights Walmart's strategic responsiveness to the shifting retail landscape. Nevertheless, the company noted growing week-to-week sales volatility during the quarter in April, attributed to economic uncertainty and weakened consumer sentiment. Despite these challenges, Walmart projects fiscal Q1 sales growth of 3% to 4%, though it expects a 100-basis point headwind due to the leap year comparison.

(Walmart Daily Price Chart, Source: Trading View)
From a technical analysis perspective, Walmart's share price has been moving in a bullish trend after rebounded from the support zone of 79.80 – 91.00, as indicated by a series of higher highs and higher lows. Recently, it was rejected from the resistance zone, but with minimal bearish momentum. This suggests the price may still have the potential to move higher and challenge the resistance zone in the near term. If it can break above this level, it could potentially surge further to retest the order block between 104.40 and 105.40.

Alibaba Set to Report Strong Q4 on AI Momentum

Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) is set to announce its fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results today. The estimated project revenue is $33.08 billion, reflecting a 7.64% increase from the same quarter last year. Meanwhile, earnings per share are expected to reach $1.48, representing a 5.71% rise compared to the prior-year quarter.

The company is anticipated to maintain strong momentum in Q4, following a solid performance in the third quarter. Alibaba’s strategic emphasis on its "user first, AI-driven" approach has yielded notable results, including a 9% year-over-year increase in customer management revenue on Taobao and Tmall. Additionally, its cloud segment returned to double-digit growth at 13%. At the same time, AI-related product revenues posted triple-digit gains for the sixth consecutive quarter, highlighting the company's ability to capitalize on digital transformation and AI innovation.

(Alibaba Daily Price Chart, Source: Trading View)
From a technical analysis perspective, Alibaba's share price has recently rebounded from the support zone of 96.50 – 99.50 and is moving upward, as indicated by a series of higher highs and higher lows. This valid bullish structure may potentially push the price higher to retest the resistance zone between 145.00 and 148.00.

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Past performance is not indicative of any future results. This information is provided for informative purposes only and should not be construed to be investment advice.