Week Ahead: Market Awaits ECB Rate Decision and U.S. Jobs Data

Next week’s key economic events kick off on Monday, 3 March 2025, with the Eurozone Flash Inflation Rate YoY at 10:00 GMT, expected to remain at 2.5%, and Japan’s Unemployment Rate at 23:30 GMT, forecasted to hold steady at 2.4%. On Tuesday, 4 March, Australia’s Retail Sales m/m data is due at 00:30 GMT, with a projected 0.4% increase, followed by the Eurozone Unemployment Rate at 10:00 GMT, expected to remain at 6.3%.

Wednesday, 5 March, will feature Australia’s GDP QoQ at 00:30 GMT, anticipated to show 0.7% growth in Q4; Switzerland’s Inflation Rate YoY at 07:30 GMT, expected to ease to 0.2%; and the U.S. ADP Employment Change at 13:15 GMT, predicted to rise to 200K.
On Thursday, 6 March, Eurozone Retail Sales YoY will be released at 10:00 GMT, with an expected growth of 1.5%, followed by the ECB Interest Rate Decision at 13:15 GMT, likely to cut rates to 2.65%. Finally, Friday, 7 March, will bring crucial U.S. labour data, including Non-Farm Payrolls at 13:30 GMT, expected to rise to 180K, the U.S. Unemployment Rate, forecasted to hold at 4%, and Canada’s Employment Change, anticipated to show a 60K increase.

Here are the week’s key events:

Monday, 3 March 2025: [10:00 GMT] Eurozone Flash Inflation Rate YoY, [23:30 GMT] Japan Unemployment Rate

February’s Eurozone inflation data is scheduled to be released at 10:00 GMT, with year-over-year inflation expected to be 2.5%, the same as January’s 2.5%. Month-over-month inflation is projected to be 0.6% in February, up from -0.3% in January. The stable annual rate is due to a combination of core inflation pressures and falling energy prices. The monthly increase is likely due to seasonality, higher consumer spending and businesses passing on costs as the economy picks up.

(Eurozone Flash Inflation Rate YoY, Source: Trading Central)

Japan’s unemployment rate data is scheduled to be released at 23:30 GMT. January's data is expected to be 2.4%, the same as December’s 2.4%. This is consistent with a stable labour market with a strong demand for workers and a tight labour supply. Additionally, structural factors such as an ageing population and government initiatives to support employment are keeping the unemployment rate low.

(Japan Unemployment Rate, Source: Trading Central)

Top US company earnings: Okta (OKTA), Gitlab (GTLB)

Tuesday, 4 March 2025: [00:30 GMT] Australia Retail Sales m/m

Australian retail sales data is scheduled to be released at 00:30 GMT and is expected to increase by 0.4% in January after a 0.1% decline in December. This bounce back in retail sales could be due to increased consumer spending post-holiday season. The shift may be driven by sales events, improved consumer sentiment and possibly easing inflation that’s supporting household purchasing power.

(Australia Retail Sales m/m Chart, Source: Trading Central)

The Eurozone unemployment rate for January is scheduled to be released at 10:00 GMT. It is expected to remain at 6.3%, the same as December. This stability indicates that the labour market is holding up well despite economic uncertainty. Job retention and hiring in key sectors are likely supporting this steady rate. Moreover, government policies aimed at stabilising employment, along with seasonal factors, may help maintain labour market resilience.

(Australia Retail Sales m/m Chart, Source: Trading Central)

Top US company earnings: CrowdStrike (CRWD), Sea (SE)

Wednesday, 5 March 2025: [00:30 GMT] Australia GDP QoQ, [07:30 GMT] Switzerland Inflation Rate YoY, [13:15 GMT] U.S ADP Employment Change

Australian GDP growth for the quarter is scheduled to be released at 00:30 GMT. It is expected to be 0.7% year-on-year in Q4, up from 0.3% in the previous quarter. This is due to stronger economic growth driven by consumer spending, business investment, and resilience in mining and services. Additionally, easing inflation and stable global supply chains will support domestic and export activity.

(Australia GDP QoQ Chart, Source: Trading Central)

The Swiss inflation rate for February is scheduled to be released at 07:30 GMT. It is expected to be 0.2% year-on-year, down from 0.4% in January. The annual rate might be due to Switzerland’s low inflation environment, supported by a strong currency and disciplined monetary policy.

(Switzerland Inflation Rate YoY Chart, Source: Trading Central)

The U.S. ADP Employment Change for February is scheduled to be released at 13:15 GMT, and it is expected to rise to 200K, up from 183K in January. The predicted growth showcases the continued strength of the U.S. labour market, underpinned by strong hiring across key sectors such as services, healthcare, and hospitality. Despite economic uncertainty and

inflation pressures, businesses appear keen on adding to their headcount to meet demand. Additionally, a robust jobs market and steady consumer spending can help support job gains, with modest seasonal factors also contributing to the expected improvement.

(U.S ADP Employment Change Chart, Source: Trading Central)

Top US company earnings: Marvell (MRVL), Adidas (ADDYY)

Thursday, 6 March 2025: [10:00 GMT] Eurozone Retail Sales YoY, [13:15 GMT] ECB Interest Rate Decision

The Eurozone's January year-on-year retail sales are expected to be released at 10:00 GMT, and they are expected to increase 1.5%, slowing down from 1.9% in December. This predicted slowdown in retail sales growth is attributed to a combination of factors, like cautious consumer spending in the presence of high inflation and economic uncertainty. While retail trade remains strong, rising cost of living and poor consumer confidence may pull discretionary spending back.

(Eurozone Retail Sales YoY Chart, Source: Trading Central)

The policy rate choice in the Eurozone is scheduled to be released at 13:15 GMT, and it is expected at 2.65%, down from the previous 2.9%. The rate cut expectation suggests that the European Central Bank (ECB) is shifting towards an accommodative monetary policy bias to support economic growth amid signs of slowing momentum. Tempering inflationary pressures and concerns over weakening demand are also expected to be informing the call as the ECB balances price stability with fostering economic resilience.

(ECB Interest Rate Decision, Source: Trading Central)

Top US company earnings: Broadcom (AVGO), Costco (COST)

Friday, 7 March 2025: [13:30 GMT] U.S Non-Farm Payrolls, [13:30 GMT] U.S Unemployment Rate, [13:30 GMT] Canada Employment Change

U.S. non-farm payrolls in February are expected to be released at 13:30 GMT, and it is expected to rise to 180K from January's 143K. The projected increase is a sign of the strength of the U.S. labour market, with firms adding more personnel to meet growing demand. Sectors such as healthcare, services, and construction are expected to bring this expansion into being, showing strength even though there are economic uncertainties and inflation pressures. The healthier payroll figures may also indicate more positive consumer confidence and seasonality, highlighting overall economic strength and indicating the employment sector's capacity to drive economic tailwinds.

(U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Chart, Source: Trading Central)

The U.S. unemployment rate for February is expected to be released at 13:30 GMT, and it is expected to hold at 4%, unchanged from the 4% reading in January. The steady rate indicates a balanced jobs market, with healthy job growth effectively absorbing newcomers to the labour market. Despite economic uncertainty and inflationary pressures, firms appear to be holding employment levels steady, an indicator of confidence in the economy. The unchanged unemployment rate might also indicate a good equilibrium between labour supply and job openings, supported by robust consumer demand and continued recovery in key sectors such as services and healthcare.

(U.S. Unemployment Rate Chart, Source: Trading Central)

Canada's February labour employment change is expected to be released at 13:30 GMT, and it is expected to record a 60K increase against 76K in January. This slowing hire reflects the lower rate of recruitment, which is consistent with an arriving full-employment labour market. While the level is proof positive of healthy recruitment, the slowing may be an adjustment after the strong show put on by hiring last month. In addition, companies may be taking a more conservative recruitment strategy with economic uncertainty and increased interest rates, weighing the expansion of the workforce against cost containment.

(Canada Employment Change Chart, Source: Trading Central)

Top US company earnings: Allianz ADR (ALIZY), BASF ADR (BASFY)

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