Developments in Ukraine will be front and centre for market participants this week as they have been since the invasion began on Feb 24th. Meanwhile, after a busy week for central banks it’s back to some economic survey data with the Eurozone flash purchasing managers’ index (PMI) series. Plus we have the UK Spring Statement and inflation data out of Britain, too. 

Ukraine-Russia conflict 

Last week saw headlines drive price action and unless there is meaningful progress towards peace it’s likely that markets will remain sensitive to news. Oil prices stabilised throughout last week, and other commodities have been less volatile, though prices remain elevated.  

Eurozone data 

Euro area PMI surveys will be pored over for the impact Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has had on consumer and business sentiment, inflation expectations and economic activity. Whilst there had been some signs of improvement in some of the survey data, the war will undoubtedly see these tumble. PMIs are diffusion indices that measure whether participants think things are better or worse than the month before – they will plunge. 

UK Spring Statement 

Following last week’s Bank of England decision, it’s the turn of fiscal policy with the UK Spring Statement on Wednesday. It’s unclear what goodies the Chancellor has up his sleeve, but gilt market and sterling will be sensitive to the announcement. Ahead of the statement is the UK CPI inflation report for the month of February, which is set to rise further from the +5.5% level hit in January. 

Major economic data