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Week ahead: US inflation set to drive further Fed speculation

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    US inflation will be in focus in the wake of last week’s Federal Reserve decision to rates by 50bps. CPI and PPI numbers are due, whilst the latest consumer inflation expectations report from the University of Michigan will also be parsed. Meanwhile earnings season on Wall Street continues with some of the more speculative names. 

    US inflation 

    Inflation remains one of the most important factors in markets today, so the big focus in the coming week is the latest US consumer price index. Headline CPI in March rose by 8.5% from a year before, the fastest annual gain since December 1981. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, rose 6.5%. This week’s print is expected to be similarly high, but will it show signs of cooling or heating? The Fed raised rates by 50bps last week and was relatively cautious as it played down speculation for larger increases over the coming months. If inflation continues to build, the Fed may need to up its pace and this could leave stocks in danger of further selling pressure. CPI is out on Wednesday, whilst producer price inflation is due on Thursday. The University of Michigan inflation expectations survey is on Friday alongside the UoM consumer sentiment report. 

    European sentiment 

    A couple of sentiment updates for the Euro area will be of interest. Monday has the Sentix Investor Confidence report, whilst Tuesday sees the release of the ZEW Economic Sentiment report. Then on Wednesday we get the lates EU economic forecasts for the bloc – the war in Ukraine and inflation are sure to be factors. 

    Earnings  

    Corporate earnings season on Wall Street continues with some of the more speculative names in the market. Peloton, Coinbase, Roblox and Beyond Meat are just a few of the large cap companies updating the market. On Wednesday, media giants Liberty Global and Walt Disney report earnings. 

    Earnings Season 

    09.05 10.05 11.05 12.05 13.05 

    Palantir Technologies (PLTR) PMO 

     

     

    The Trade Desk (TTD) E 

     

    Viatris (VTRS) PMO 

     

    Lemonade (LMND) AMC 

     

    Upstart Holdings (UPST) AMC 

     

    Peloton (PTON) PMO 

     

     

    Coinbase Global (COIN)AMC 

     

    Roblox Corporation (RBLX)AMC 

     

    Unity Software (U) AMC 

     

    Takeda Pharmaceutical (TAK) PMO 

     

     

    Beyond Meat (BYND) AMC 

     

    Liberty Global Class A (LBTYA) AMC 

     

    Walt Disney (DIS) AMC 

      

      

     

    Major economic data 

    Sun May 8 7:30pm JPY Average Cash Earnings y/y 
     7:50pm JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 
    Mon May 9 2:45am EUR French Trade Balance 
     4:30am EUR Sentix Investor Confidence 
     8:30am CAD Building Permits m/m 
     10:00am USD Final Wholesale Inventories m/m 
     Tentative USD Loan Officer Survey 
     7:01pm GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y 
     7:30pm JPY Household Spending y/y 
     9:30pm AUD NAB Business Confidence 
     11:35pm JPY 10-y Bond Auction 
    Tue May 10 10th-15th EUR German WPI m/m 
     4:00am EUR Italian Industrial Production m/m 
     5:00am EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment 
      EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment 
     10th-15th CNH M2 Money Supply y/y 
     10th-15th CNH New Loans 
     6:00am USD NFIB Small Business Index 
     Tentative USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 
     8:30pm AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment 
     9:30pm CNH CPI y/y 
      CNH PPI y/y 
     Tentative CNH Trade Balance 
     Tentative CNH USD-Denominated Trade Balance 
    Wed May 11 1:00am JPY Leading Indicators 
     2:00am EUR German Final CPI m/m 
     5:00am EUR EU Economic Forecasts 
     Tentative EUR German 10-y Bond Auction 
     8:30am USD CPI m/m 
      USD Core CPI m/m 
     Tentative USD Mortgage Delinquencies 
     10:30am US OIL Crude Oil Inventories 
     1:01pm USD 10-y Bond Auction 
     2:00pm USD Federal Budget Balance 
     6:45pm NZD FPI m/m 
      NZD Visitor Arrivals m/m 
     7:01pm GBP RICS House Price Balance 
     7:50pm JPY BOJ Summary of Opinions 
      JPY Bank Lending y/y 
      JPY Current Account 
     9:00pm AUD MI Inflation Expectations 
     11:00pm NZD Inflation Expectations q/q 
     11:35pm JPY 30-y Bond Auction 
    Thu May 12 1:00am JPY Economy Watchers Sentiment 
     2:00am GBP Prelim GDP q/q 
      GBP Construction Output m/m 
      GBP GDP m/m 
      GBP Goods Trade Balance 
      GBP Index of Services 3m/3m 
      GBP Industrial Production m/m 
      GBP Manufacturing Production m/m 
      GBP Prelim Business Investment q/q 
     Tentative EUR Spanish 10-y Bond Auction 
     Tentative GBP 10-y Bond Auction 
     7:30am EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts 
     8:30am USD PPI m/m 
      USD Core PPI m/m 
      USD Unemployment Claims 
     Tentative GBP NIESR GDP Estimate 
     10:30am Nat Gas Natural Gas Storage 
     1:01pm USD 30-y Bond Auction 
     4:00pm USD FOMC Financial Stability Report 
     6:30pm NZD BusinessNZ Manufacturing Index 
     7:50pm JPY M2 Money Stock y/y 
    Fri May 13 2:45am EUR French Final CPI m/m 
     Tentative CNH Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y 
     5:00am EUR Industrial Production m/m 
     8:30am USD Import Prices m/m 
     10:00am USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 
      USD Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 
     Tentative USD Treasury Currency Report 

     


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