Sunday Feb 20 2022 07:02
42 min
The situation on the Russia-Ukraine border is set to remain at the forefront of market participants’ minds this week as the Olympics ends in China. Meanwhile core PCE inflation from the US – the Fed’s preferred gauge – is due at the end of the week.
Russia and Ukraine
Market participants will be keeping a keen eye on events on Ukraine’s easter border. Headline risks are set to persist, affecting energy markets but also having the potential to whipsaw stocks and bonds.
US inflation
No let-up in inflation pressures; that was the story last week as PPI hit 1% month-on-month. On Friday we get the core PCE reading – the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation for consumers. The core personal consumption expenditures price index rose 4.9% from a year ago in December, the highest reading since 1983. The key thing for inflation watchers will be the month-on-month numbers, which could tell us whether inflation might be peaking. Meanwhile markets will also be parsing a series of flash PMI estimates for the Eurozone, UK and US economies.
RBNZ
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) convenes this week with the markets betting on a hike, the first of perhaps seven 25bps hikes this year. In an MNI interview, Arthur Grimes, a former RBNZ Chairman and Chief Economist, called on the central bank to hike the benchmark rate by 75bps this week’s meeting. With markets already banking on hiking this year, the kiwi could struggle unless the RBNZ delivers this kind of hawkish surprise.
Central bank speakers
Eyes will be on the usual raft of Fedspeakers this week as markets try to figure out policymakers’ appetite for hiking by 50bps in March. Inter-meeting hike chatter has quietened down. Meanwhile we’ll be paying close attention to Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey, who’ll be speaking at the first annual BEAR (Bank of England Agenda for Research) conference.
Earnings season continues
Look for updates from Lucid, BeyondMeat, Moderna and Coinbase as earnings season on Wall Street winds up.
Major economic data (times in GMT)
| Sun Feb 20 | 10:00pm | AUD | Flash Manufacturing PMI | ||
| AUD | Flash Services PMI | ||||
| Mon Feb 21 | 12:01am | GBP | Rightmove HPI m/m | ||
| 12:30am | JPY | Flash Manufacturing PMI | |||
| 7:00am | EUR | German PPI m/m | |||
| 8:15am | EUR | French Flash Services PMI | |||
| EUR | French Flash Manufacturing PMI | ||||
| 8:30am | EUR | German Flash Manufacturing PMI | |||
| EUR | German Flash Services PMI | ||||
| 9:00am | EUR | Flash Manufacturing PMI | |||
| EUR | Flash Services PMI | ||||
| 9:30am | GBP | Flash Manufacturing PMI | |||
| GBP | Flash Services PMI | ||||
| Tentative | EUR | German Buba Monthly Report | |||
| All Day | USD | Bank Holiday | |||
| 11:50pm | JPY | SPPI y/y | |||
| Tue Feb 22 | 1:00am | AUD | RBA Assist Gov Kent Speaks | ||
| 2:00am | NZD | Credit Card Spending y/y | |||
| 5:00am | JPY | BOJ Core CPI y/y | |||
| 7:00am | EUR | German Import Prices m/m | |||
| GBP | Public Sector Net Borrowing | ||||
| 9:00am | EUR | German ifo Business Climate | |||
| 10:45am | GBP | MPC Member Ramsden Speaks | |||
| 11:00am | GBP | CBI Industrial Order Expectations | |||
| 2:00pm | EUR | Belgian NBB Business Climate | |||
| USD | HPI m/m | ||||
| USD | S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y | ||||
| 2:45pm | USD | Flash Manufacturing PMI | |||
| USD | Flash Services PMI | ||||
| 3:00pm | USD | CB Consumer Confidence | |||
| USD | Richmond Manufacturing Index | ||||
| Wed Feb 23 | All Day | JPY | Bank Holiday | ||
| 12:30am | AUD | Wage Price Index q/q | |||
| AUD | Construction Work Done q/q | ||||
| 1:00am | NZD | Official Cash Rate | |||
| NZD | RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement | ||||
| NZD | RBNZ Rate Statement | ||||
| 2:00am | NZD | RBNZ Press Conference | |||
| 7:00am | EUR | German GfK Consumer Climate | |||
| 9:00am | CHF | Credit Suisse Economic Expectations | |||
| 10:00am | EUR | Final CPI y/y | |||
| EUR | Final Core CPI y/y | ||||
| 1:30pm | CAD | Corporate Profits q/q | |||
| Tentative | GBP | Monetary Policy Report Hearings | |||
| 5:00pm | GBP | MPC Member Tenreyro Speaks | |||
| 9:45pm | NZD | Trade Balance | |||
| Thu Feb 24 | 12:30am | AUD | Private Capital Expenditure q/q | ||
| 8:00am | CHF | KOF Economic Barometer | |||
| 11:00am | GBP | CBI Realized Sales | |||
| 1:15pm | GBP | BOE Gov Bailey Speaks | |||
| 1:30pm | USD | Prelim GDP q/q | |||
| USD | Unemployment Claims | ||||
| USD | Prelim GDP Price Index q/q | ||||
| 2:00pm | CNY | CB Leading Index m/m | |||
| 3:00pm | USD | New Home Sales | |||
| 3:30pm | USD | Natural Gas Storage | |||
| 4:00pm | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | |||
| 5:00pm | USD | FOMC Member Mester Speaks | |||
| 9:45pm | NZD | Core Retail Sales q/q | |||
| NZD | Retail Sales q/q | ||||
| 11:30pm | JPY | Tokyo Core CPI y/y | |||
| 11:50pm | JPY | Retail Sales y/y | |||
| Fri Feb 25 | 12:01am | GBP | GfK Consumer Confidence | ||
| 5:00am | JPY | Housing Starts y/y | |||
| 7:00am | EUR | German Final GDP q/q | |||
| EUR | German Retail Sales m/m | ||||
| 7:45am | EUR | French Consumer Spending m/m | |||
| EUR | French Prelim CPI m/m | ||||
| EUR | French Prelim GDP q/q | ||||
| 8:00am | CHF | GDP q/q | |||
| EUR | Spanish Flash CPI y/y | ||||
| 9:00am | EUR | M3 Money Supply y/y | |||
| EUR | Private Loans y/y | ||||
| All Day | EUR | ECOFIN Meetings | |||
| All Day | EUR | Eurogroup Meetings | |||
| Tentative | EUR | Italian 10-y Bond Auction | |||
| 1:30pm | USD | Core PCE Price Index m/m | |||
| USD | Core Durable Goods Orders m/m | ||||
| USD | Durable Goods Orders m/m | ||||
| USD | Personal Income m/m | ||||
| USD | Personal Spending m/m | ||||
| 3:00pm | USD | Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment | |||
| USD | Pending Home Sales m/m | ||||
| USD | Revised UoM Inflation Expectations | ||||
| 6:00pm | GBP | MPC Member Pill Speaks |
Key earnings data
| 21.02 | 22.02 | 23.02 | 24.02 | 25.02 |
| Lucid Group (LCID) E |
The Home Depot (HD) PMO
Medtronic (MDT) PMO
Virgin Galactic Holdings (SPCE) AMC
|
Lemonade (LMND) AMC
eBay (EBAY) AMC
|
Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) PMO Moderna (MRNA) PMO
Block (SQ) AMC
Intuit (INTU) AMC
|
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) E |
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