The situation on the Russia-Ukraine border is set to remain at the forefront of market participants’ minds this week as the Olympics ends in China. Meanwhile core PCE inflation from the US – the Fed’s preferred gauge – is due at the end of the week.  

Russia and Ukraine 

Market participants will be keeping a keen eye on events on Ukraine’s easter border. Headline risks are set to persist, affecting energy markets but also having the potential to whipsaw stocks and bonds.  

US inflation 

No let-up in inflation pressures; that was the story last week as PPI hit 1% month-on-month. On Friday we get the core PCE reading – the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation for consumers. The core personal consumption expenditures price index rose 4.9% from a year ago in December, the highest reading since 1983. The key thing for inflation watchers will be the month-on-month numbers, which could tell us whether inflation might be peaking. Meanwhile markets will also be parsing a series of flash PMI estimates for the Eurozone, UK and US economies. 

RBNZ 

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) convenes this week with the markets betting on a hike, the first of perhaps seven 25bps hikes this year. In an MNI interview, Arthur Grimes, a former RBNZ Chairman and Chief Economist, called on the central bank to hike the benchmark rate by 75bps this week’s meeting. With markets already banking on hiking this year, the kiwi could struggle unless the RBNZ delivers this kind of hawkish surprise. 

Central bank speakers 

Eyes will be on the usual raft of Fedspeakers this week as markets try to figure out policymakers’ appetite for hiking by 50bps in March. Inter-meeting hike chatter has quietened down. Meanwhile we’ll be paying close attention to Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey, who’ll be speaking at the first annual BEAR (Bank of England Agenda for Research) conference. 

Earnings season continues 

Look for updates from Lucid, BeyondMeat, Moderna and Coinbase as earnings season on Wall Street winds up.  

Major economic data (times in GMT) 

Sun Feb 20	10:00pm		AUD		Flash Manufacturing PMI
			AUD		Flash Services PMI
Mon Feb 21	12:01am		GBP		Rightmove HPI m/m
	12:30am		JPY		Flash Manufacturing PMI
	7:00am		EUR		German PPI m/m
	8:15am		EUR		French Flash Services PMI
			EUR		French Flash Manufacturing PMI
	8:30am		EUR		German Flash Manufacturing PMI
			EUR		German Flash Services PMI
	9:00am		EUR		Flash Manufacturing PMI
			EUR		Flash Services PMI
	9:30am		GBP		Flash Manufacturing PMI
			GBP		Flash Services PMI
	Tentative		EUR		German Buba Monthly Report
	All Day		USD		Bank Holiday
	11:50pm		JPY		SPPI y/y
Tue Feb 22	1:00am		AUD		RBA Assist Gov Kent Speaks
	2:00am		NZD		Credit Card Spending y/y
	5:00am		JPY		BOJ Core CPI y/y
	7:00am		EUR		German Import Prices m/m
			GBP		Public Sector Net Borrowing
	9:00am		EUR		German ifo Business Climate
	10:45am		GBP		MPC Member Ramsden Speaks
	11:00am		GBP		CBI Industrial Order Expectations
	2:00pm		EUR		Belgian NBB Business Climate
			USD		HPI m/m
			USD		S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y
	2:45pm		USD		Flash Manufacturing PMI
			USD		Flash Services PMI
	3:00pm		USD		CB Consumer Confidence
			USD		Richmond Manufacturing Index
Wed Feb 23	All Day		JPY		Bank Holiday
	12:30am		AUD		Wage Price Index q/q
			AUD		Construction Work Done q/q
	1:00am		NZD		Official Cash Rate
			NZD		RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
			NZD		RBNZ Rate Statement
	2:00am		NZD		RBNZ Press Conference
	7:00am		EUR		German GfK Consumer Climate
	9:00am		CHF		Credit Suisse Economic Expectations
	10:00am		EUR		Final CPI y/y
			EUR		Final Core CPI y/y
	1:30pm		CAD		Corporate Profits q/q
	Tentative		GBP		Monetary Policy Report Hearings
	5:00pm		GBP		MPC Member Tenreyro Speaks
	9:45pm		NZD		Trade Balance
Thu Feb 24	12:30am		AUD		Private Capital Expenditure q/q
	8:00am		CHF		KOF Economic Barometer
	11:00am		GBP		CBI Realized Sales
	1:15pm		GBP		BOE Gov Bailey Speaks
	1:30pm		USD		Prelim GDP q/q
			USD		Unemployment Claims
			USD		Prelim GDP Price Index q/q
	2:00pm		CNY		CB Leading Index m/m
	3:00pm		USD		New Home Sales
	3:30pm		USD		Natural Gas Storage
	4:00pm		USD		Crude Oil Inventories
	5:00pm		USD		FOMC Member Mester Speaks
	9:45pm		NZD		Core Retail Sales q/q
			NZD		Retail Sales q/q
	11:30pm		JPY		Tokyo Core CPI y/y
	11:50pm		JPY		Retail Sales y/y
Fri Feb 25	12:01am		GBP		GfK Consumer Confidence
	5:00am		JPY		Housing Starts y/y
	7:00am		EUR		German Final GDP q/q
			EUR		German Retail Sales m/m
	7:45am		EUR		French Consumer Spending m/m
			EUR		French Prelim CPI m/m
			EUR		French Prelim GDP q/q
	8:00am		CHF		GDP q/q
			EUR		Spanish Flash CPI y/y
	9:00am		EUR		M3 Money Supply y/y
			EUR		Private Loans y/y
	All Day		EUR		ECOFIN Meetings
	All Day		EUR		Eurogroup Meetings
	Tentative		EUR		Italian 10-y Bond Auction
	1:30pm		USD		Core PCE Price Index m/m
			USD		Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
			USD		Durable Goods Orders m/m
			USD		Personal Income m/m
			USD		Personal Spending m/m
	3:00pm		USD		Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
			USD		Pending Home Sales m/m
			USD		Revised UoM Inflation Expectations
	6:00pm		GBP		MPC Member Pill Speaks

 

 

 

Key earnings data 

21.02	22.02	23.02	24.02	25.02
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