From Tuesday, 19 August 2025, key data releases include Canada’s July inflation at 12:30 GMT, expected to rise from 1.9% to 2.0% on base effects and firmer energy prices, and U.S. building permits, seen easing from 1.393 M to 1.390 M amid high borrowing costs. At 23:50 GMT, Japan’s trade surplus is forecast to widen from ¥153.1 B to ¥250 B on stronger exports and lower energy imports. On Wednesday, 20 August, the RBNZ is expected to cut rates from 3.25% to 3.00% at 02:00 GMT, while U.K. CPI at 06:00 GMT is seen rising from 3.6% to 4.0% on higher energy and food costs.
On Thursday, 21 August at 08:30 GMT, U.K. manufacturing PMI is forecast to edge up from 48.0 to 48.6, signalling slower contraction, while Japan’s July CPI at 23:30 GMT is expected to ease from 3.3% to 3.1% on weaker energy and food prices. On Friday, 22 August at 06:00 GMT, U.K. retail sales are forecast to grow 0.5% MoM in July, slowing from 0.9% as cost-of-living pressures weigh on spending.
Canada’s annual inflation rate stood at 1.9% in June, with July’s reading expected to edge higher to 2.0%. The anticipated uptick is likely driven by base effects from last year’s lower comparison levels, modest increases in energy prices, and persistent cost pressures in services such as housing and healthcare. Additionally, a rebound in consumer demand over the summer months and recent currency fluctuations may be contributing to the slightly higher inflation outlook. This data is set to be released on 19 August at 1230 GMT.
(Canada Inflation Rate YoY Chart, Source: Trading Economics)
U.S. preliminary building permits came in at 1.393 million in June, with July’s figure expected to ease slightly to 1.390 million. The marginal downgrade reflects ongoing challenges in the housing sector, including elevated mortgage rates, tighter lending conditions, and high construction costs, which are weighing on new permit applications. However, the minimal change suggests that underlying housing demand remains relatively steady, supported by a resilient labour market and limited housing supply. This data is set to be released on 19 August at 1230 GMT.
(U.S. Building Permits Preliminary Chart, Source: Trading Economics)
Japan’s trade balance posted a surplus of ¥153.1 billion in June, with July’s surplus expected to widen to around ¥250 billion. The projected improvement is likely supported by seasonal export strength in sectors such as automobiles and electronics, alongside easing import costs due to lower global energy prices. Additionally, a softer yen may have boosted export competitiveness, further contributing to the anticipated increase in the trade surplus. This data is set to be released on 19 August at 2350 GMT.
(Japan Balance of Trade Chart, Source: Trading Economics)
Top US company earnings: Home Depot (HD), Xiaomi (XIACY)
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s most recent policy rate was set at 3.25%, with markets anticipating a cut to 3.00% at the upcoming decision on 20 August at 0200 GMT. The expected reduction reflects signs of cooling economic activity, easing inflationary pressures, and a softer labour market, which together suggest that monetary policy can be slightly loosened without reigniting price growth. Additionally, global central banks’ recent dovish pivots and concerns over export demand may be influencing expectations for a more accommodative stance. This data is set to be released on 20 August at 0200 GMT.
(RBNZ Interest Rate Decision Chart, Source: Trading Economics)
The U.K.’s annual inflation rate stood at 3.6% in June, with July’s reading expected to accelerate to 4.0%. The projected rise is likely driven by higher energy tariffs following recent adjustments in utility pricing, persistent food price pressures, and stronger wage growth feeding into services inflation. Additionally, base effects from last year’s comparatively lower prices may amplify the year-on-year increase, pushing the headline rate closer to the 4% mark. This data is set to be released on 20 August at 0600 GMT.
(U.K. Inflation Rate YoY Chart, Source: Trading Economics)
Top US company earnings: Salesforce Inc (CRM), TJX (TJX)
The U.K.’s flash manufacturing PMI came in at 48.0 in July, with August’s reading expected to improve slightly to 48.6. The modest uptick reflects tentative signs of stabilisation in the sector, supported by easing input cost pressures, a gradual recovery in supply chains, and slightly firmer domestic demand. However, the index remains below the 50.0 threshold, indicating that manufacturing activity is still contracting, albeit at a slower pace. This data is set to be released on 21 August at 0830 GMT.
(U.K. Manufacturing PMI Flash Chart, Source: Trading Economics)
Japan’s annual inflation rate stood at 3.3% in June; our expectation for July’s reading is to ease slightly to around 3.1%. The moderation is likely driven by cooling energy prices, which slowed sharply in June, and softer food cost growth, easing pressure on headline CPI. Core inflation has also shown signs of stabilising, suggesting underlying demand-driven price pressures are not accelerating. Base effects from last year’s higher prices, alongside the Bank of Japan’s projection for inflation to gradually trend toward its 2.5% – 3.0% target range, further support expectations for a mild slowdown in July’s figure. This data is set to be released on 21 August at 2330 GMT.
(Japan Inflation Rate YoY Chart, Source: Trading Economics)
Top US company earnings: Walmart (WMT), Intuit (INTU)
The U.K.’s retail sales rebounded by 0.9% month-on-month in June following a steep 2.8% drop in May, buoyed by record-warm weather, live events, and strength in fuel, clothing, and online spending. However, with climbing food prices and persistent consumer caution amid economic uncertainty, as highlighted by the Confederation of British Industry’s warning of continued softness and a further drop in the expected sales balance for July, we expect a more muted result, perhaps around 0.5% MoM. This data is set to be released on 22 August at 0600 GMT.
(U.K. Retail Sales MoM Chart, Source: Trading Economics)
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