Sunday Aug 28 2022 04:49
11 min
The US nonfarm payrolls report is the highlight for traders this week as it should deliver a steer on what the Federal Reserve might do next after last week’s comments from Jay Powell at Jackson Hole. Market pricing suggests a roughly 50/50 chance the Fed will go for 75bps at its September 21st meeting, but a soft payroll report could nudge expectations back towards 50bps.
Here are the week’s key events:
Monday
Australian retail sales figures is the first release of the week on an otherwise quiet day for data. In Europe, traders await the German retail sales and import prices data, whilst the London Stock Exchange is shut for a Bank Holiday in the UK, which might keep volumes in equity derivatives and forex markets thin for the bulk of the European session.
Tuesday
The main focus is the flash/preliminary CPI inflation numbers for Germany, France, Spain and Italy at the start of the European session. Later in the day there is the US CB Consumer Confidence survey, which last month registered a third-straight decline, with expectations sliding to an-almost decade low. Meanwhile JOLTS Jobs Openings will be watched for clues as to how the US labour market is holding up as the Federal Reserve tightens interest rates.
Wednesday
Chinese manufacturing and services data is the highlight of the Asian session alongside Japanese industrial production and retail sales numbers. Later on, we get the flash Eurozone inflation numbers. In the afternoon session on Wall Street traders look to the ADP nonfarm employment report ahead of this week’s NFP release, as well as the Chicago PMI. Weekly crude oil inventories from the US are also on tap.
Thursday
The Asian session will focus on the China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI, ahead of final PMI readings from the Euro area at the start of European trade. Weekly US unemployment claims come ahead of the start of trade on Wall Street and the latest US manufacturing PMI.
Friday
August nonfarm payrolls are the focus as markets look to see what labour market strength or weakness might mean for the Federal Reserve’s upcoming September meeting. Whilst the Fed might become more sensitive to some softer economic data, the payrolls report will be central to market expectations for whether it opts to raise rates by 75bps or 50bps when it next meets. Jobs growth in 2022 has been exceptionally strong, giving the Fed plenty of room to raise rates aggressively. Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 528,000 in July, larger than the average monthly gain over the prior 4 months, which was already a robust 388,000.
Economic calendar (BST)
| Mon Aug 29 | 2:30am | AUD | Retail Sales m/m |
| Tentative | EUR | German Import Prices m/m | |
| Tentative | EUR | German Retail Sales m/m | |
| All Day | GBP | Bank Holiday | |
| Tue Aug 30 | 12:30am | JPY | Unemployment Rate |
| 2:30am | AUD | Building Approvals m/m | |
| 7:45am | EUR | French Prelim GDP q/q | |
| 8:00am | EUR | Spanish Flash CPI y/y | |
| All Day | EUR | German Prelim CPI m/m | |
| 9:30am | GBP | M4 Money Supply m/m | |
| GBP | Mortgage Approvals | ||
| GBP | Net Lending to Individuals m/m | ||
| 10:00am | EUR | Italian Prelim CPI m/m | |
| Tentative | EUR | Italian 10-y Bond Auction | |
| 1:30pm | CAD | Current Account | |
| 2:00pm | USD | HPI m/m | |
| USD | S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y | ||
| 3:00pm | USD | CB Consumer Confidence | |
| USD | JOLTS Job Openings | ||
| 11:45pm | NZD | Building Consents m/m | |
| Wed Aug 31 | 12:01am | GBP | BRC Shop Price Index y/y |
| 12:50am | JPY | Prelim Industrial Production m/m | |
| JPY | Retail Sales y/y | ||
| 2:00am | NZD | ANZ Business Confidence | |
| 2:30am | AUD | Construction Work Done q/q | |
| AUD | Private Sector Credit m/m | ||
| CNH | Manufacturing PMI | ||
| CNH | Non-Manufacturing PMI | ||
| 6:00am | JPY | Consumer Confidence | |
| JPY | Housing Starts y/y | ||
| 7:00am | GBP | Nationwide HPI m/m | |
| 7:45am | EUR | French Consumer Spending m/m | |
| EUR | French Prelim CPI m/m | ||
| 8:00am | CHF | KOF Economic Barometer | |
| 8:55am | EUR | German Unemployment Change | |
| 9:00am | CHF | Credit Suisse Economic Expectations | |
| 10:00am | EUR | CPI Flash Estimate y/y | |
| EUR | Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y | ||
| Tentative | USD | ADP Non-Farm Employment Change | |
| 1:30pm | CAD | GDP m/m | |
| 2:45pm | USD | Chicago PMI | |
| 3:30pm | OIL | Crude Oil Inventories | |
| 11:30pm | AUD | AIG Manufacturing Index | |
| Thu Sep 1 | 12:50am | JPY | Capital Spending q/y |
| 1:30am | JPY | Final Manufacturing PMI | |
| 2:30am | AUD | Private Capital Expenditure q/q | |
| 2:45am | CNH | Caixin Manufacturing PMI | |
| 4:35am | JPY | 10-y Bond Auction | |
| 7:30am | AUD | Commodity Prices y/y | |
| CHF | CPI m/m | ||
| CHF | Retail Sales y/y | ||
| 8:15am | EUR | Spanish Manufacturing PMI | |
| 8:30am | CHF | Manufacturing PMI | |
| 8:45am | EUR | Italian Manufacturing PMI | |
| 8:50am | EUR | French Final Manufacturing PMI | |
| 8:55am | EUR | German Final Manufacturing PMI | |
| 9:00am | EUR | Final Manufacturing PMI | |
| EUR | Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate | ||
| 9:30am | GBP | Final Manufacturing PMI | |
| 10:00am | EUR | Unemployment Rate | |
| 12:30pm | USD | Challenger Job Cuts y/y | |
| 1:30pm | CAD | Building Permits m/m | |
| USD | Unemployment Claims | ||
| USD | Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q | ||
| USD | Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q | ||
| 2:30pm | CAD | Manufacturing PMI | |
| 2:45pm | USD | Final Manufacturing PMI | |
| 3:00pm | USD | ISM Manufacturing PMI | |
| USD | Construction Spending m/m | ||
| USD | ISM Manufacturing Prices | ||
| All Day | USD | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | |
| 3:30pm | NAT GAS | Natural Gas Storage | |
| 11:45pm | NZD | Overseas Trade Index q/q | |
| Fri Sep 2 | 12:50am | JPY | Monetary Base y/y |
| 7:00am | EUR | German Trade Balance | |
| 7:45am | EUR | French Gov Budget Balance | |
| 8:00am | EUR | Spanish Unemployment Change | |
| 9:30am | GBP | Construction PMI | |
| 10:00am | EUR | PPI m/m | |
| Tentative | EUR | Spanish 10-y Bond Auction | |
| Tentative | EUR | French 10-y Bond Auction | |
| 1:30pm | CAD | Labor Productivity q/q | |
| USD | Average Hourly Earnings m/m | ||
| USD | Non-Farm Employment Change | ||
| USD | Unemployment Rate | ||
| 3:00pm | USD | Factory Orders m/m |
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