Sunday May 29 2022 07:22
12 min
Market attention shifts to the US labour market with the latest nonfarm payrolls release and wage data which could see further upwards pressure on inflation. Oil markets are looking to the next OPEC+ meeting and on the central bank front it’s the turn of the Bank of Canada to raise rates in an effort to combat inflation.
Nonfarm payrolls
The latest gut check from the US labour market comes on Friday with the nonfarm payrolls data. Last month’s report showed jobs growth accelerated to +428,000 in April, whilst wages were up 0.3%, or +5.5% year-on-year. The wage component appears increasingly important to the Fed as it looks to raise rates aggressively over the summer. Spiralling wages could force the Fed to move at an even faster pace than is currently expected. The Atlanta Fed’s latest data shows wages growing 6.6% year-on-year, though this data has been steady for the last two months.
Bank of Canada
The Bank of Canada’s policy rate, at 1%, is “too stimulative” and should return to more neutral levels “quickly,” officials have said. In April the BOC raised rates by 50bps, the largest single increase in two decades. Markets expect another 50bps move this week and there is even chatter about 75bps being on the table.
OPEC
OPEC+ meets again this week to discuss output. OPEC and non-OPEC partners agreed last month to raise production targets by 432,000 barrels per day, sticking to the existing strategy of gradually unwinding supply cuts. It’s not expected they will change course yet despite Brent and WTI crude holding well above $100 even as China remained in lockdown, a massive SPR release fed into the market and recession fears should be cooling the demand outlook. Meanwhile global inventories are approaching ‘precarious levels’, according to BofA.
Economic data
Whilst the UK revels in an extended bank holiday weekend on Thursday and Friday, the economic data is set to keep coming. Tuesday sees the US consumer confidence survey and Australian GDP figures. Wednesday’s highlights are likely the ISM manufacturing PMI and JOLTS job openings reports. Thursday’s ADP private payrolls report is always assessed for indications ahead of the nonfarm payrolls on Friday.
Major economic data
| Mon May 30 | 7:00am | EUR | German Import Prices m/m |
| exp 30th-2nd | EUR | German Retail Sales m/m | |
| exp 30th-2nd | GBP | Nationwide HPI m/m | |
| All Day | EUR | German Prelim CPI m/m | |
| 8:00am | CHF | KOF Economic Barometer | |
| EUR | Spanish Flash CPI y/y | ||
| 1:30pm | CAD | Current Account | |
| All Day | USD | Bank Holiday | |
| 11:45pm | NZD | Building Consents m/m | |
| Tue May 31 | 12:30am | JPY | Unemployment Rate |
| 12:50am | JPY | Prelim Industrial Production m/m | |
| JPY | Retail Sales y/y | ||
| 2:00am | NZD | ANZ Business Confidence | |
| 2:30am | AUD | Building Approvals m/m | |
| AUD | Company Operating Profits q/q | ||
| AUD | Current Account | ||
| AUD | Private Sector Credit m/m | ||
| CNH | Manufacturing PMI | ||
| CNH | Non-Manufacturing PMI | ||
| 6:00am | JPY | Consumer Confidence | |
| JPY | Housing Starts y/y | ||
| 7:00am | CHF | Trade Balance | |
| 7:30am | CHF | Retail Sales y/y | |
| 7:45am | EUR | French Consumer Spending m/m | |
| EUR | French Prelim CPI m/m | ||
| EUR | French Prelim GDP q/q | ||
| 8:00am | CHF | GDP q/q | |
| 8:55am | EUR | German Unemployment Change | |
| 9:30am | GBP | M4 Money Supply m/m | |
| GBP | Mortgage Approvals | ||
| GBP | Net Lending to Individuals m/m | ||
| 10:00am | EUR | CPI Flash Estimate y/y | |
| EUR | Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y | ||
| EUR | Italian Prelim CPI m/m | ||
| Tentative | EUR | Italian 10-y Bond Auction | |
| 1:30pm | CAD | GDP m/m | |
| 2:00pm | USD | HPI m/m | |
| USD | S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y | ||
| 2:45pm | USD | Chicago PMI | |
| 3:00pm | USD | CB Consumer Confidence | |
| Tentative | USD | Treasury Currency Report | |
| 11:30pm | AUD | AIG Manufacturing Index | |
| Wed Jun 1 | 12:01am | GBP | BRC Shop Price Index y/y |
| 12:50am | JPY | Capital Spending q/y | |
| 1:30am | JPY | Final Manufacturing PMI | |
| 2:30am | AUD | GDP q/q | |
| 2:45am | CNH | Caixin Manufacturing PMI | |
| 7:30am | AUD | Commodity Prices y/y | |
| 7:45am | EUR | French Gov Budget Balance | |
| 8:15am | EUR | Spanish Manufacturing PMI | |
| 8:30am | CHF | Manufacturing PMI | |
| 8:45am | EUR | Italian Manufacturing PMI | |
| 8:50am | EUR | French Final Manufacturing PMI | |
| 8:55am | EUR | German Final Manufacturing PMI | |
| 9:00am | EUR | Final Manufacturing PMI | |
| EUR | Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate | ||
| 9:30am | GBP | Final Manufacturing PMI | |
| 10:00am | EUR | Unemployment Rate | |
| All Day | All | OPEC-JMMC Meetings | |
| 2:30pm | CAD | Manufacturing PMI | |
| 2:45pm | USD | Final Manufacturing PMI | |
| 3:00pm | CAD | BOC Rate Statement | |
| CAD | Overnight Rate | ||
| USD | ISM Manufacturing PMI | ||
| USD | JOLTS Job Openings | ||
| USD | Construction Spending m/m | ||
| USD | ISM Manufacturing Prices | ||
| All Day | USD | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | |
| 7:00pm | USD | Beige Book | |
| 11:45pm | NZD | Overseas Trade Index q/q | |
| Thu Jun 2 | 12:50am | JPY | Monetary Base y/y |
| All Day | CNH | Bank Holiday | |
| 2:30am | AUD | Retail Sales m/m | |
| AUD | Trade Balance | ||
| 4:35am | JPY | 10-y Bond Auction | |
| 7:30am | CHF | CPI m/m | |
| 8:00am | EUR | Spanish Unemployment Change | |
| All Day | GBP | Bank Holiday | |
| All Day | EUR | Italian Bank Holiday | |
| 10:00am | EUR | PPI m/m | |
| All Day | All | OPEC Meetings | |
| 12:30pm | USD | Challenger Job Cuts y/y | |
| 1:15pm | USD | ADP Non-Farm Employment Change | |
| 1:30pm | CAD | Building Permits m/m | |
| USD | Unemployment Claims | ||
| USD | Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q | ||
| USD | Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q | ||
| 3:00pm | USD | Factory Orders m/m | |
| 3:30pm | Nat Gas | Natural Gas Storage | |
| 4:00pm | OIL | Crude Oil Inventories | |
| 11:30pm | AUD | AIG Construction Index | |
| Fri Jun 3 | 7:00am | EUR | German Trade Balance |
| 7:45am | EUR | French Industrial Production m/m | |
| All Day | GBP | Bank Holiday | |
| 8:15am | EUR | Spanish Services PMI | |
| 8:45am | EUR | Italian Services PMI | |
| 8:50am | EUR | French Final Services PMI | |
| 8:55am | EUR | German Final Services PMI | |
| 9:00am | EUR | Final Services PMI | |
| 10:00am | EUR | Retail Sales m/m | |
| 1:30pm | CAD | Labor Productivity q/q | |
| USD | Average Hourly Earnings m/m | ||
| USD | Non-Farm Employment Change | ||
| USD | Unemployment Rate | ||
| 2:45pm | USD | Final Services PMI | |
| 3:00pm | USD | ISM Services PMI |
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