Sunday Jul 28 2019 11:30
5 min
The Federal Reserve is widely anticipated to cut interest rates this week, but there are still big unanswered questions that would help the markets understand the longer-term plan.
1) Will the FOMC cut by 50bps or 25bps? Markets suggest a roughly 25% chance for a 50bps cut.
2) Is this an insurance cut or the start of a sustained easing cycle? While Jerome Powell has signalled a cut in July, it’s lot less clear whether we should expect more cuts are we progress through the latter part of 2019.
Earnings season continues and Apple is the main focus for traders this week.
Analysts are broadly bullish on Apple ahead of the results – check the Analyst Recommendations tool in the platform for more information.
Britain’s new prime minister enjoys his first full week at the helm. The market will be wondering if there is any likelihood for changes to Brexit deals and deadlines based on his initial talks with the EU. Sterling pairs should remain on edge.
The Bank of England is still shackled by Brexit – and all the related uncertainty – but it increasingly seems to be moving with the rest of the world. Instead of the next move likely to be a hike, it looks much more likely the central bank is leaning towards cutting interest rates. We’ll find out more on Thursday at noon, UK time.
Coming shortly after the Fed meeting these payroll numbers will be scrutinised as closely as ever. Job creation bounced back last month, dampening expectations for a 50bps cut – another strong print, combined with improving wage growth, may tell the market that the Fed is not under pressure to do any further easing
We’re in the thick of earnings season, so let’s look at the releases in the coming week:
| 29th July | Ryanair – Q1 2020 Earnings | |
| After-Market | 30th July | Apple – Q3 Earnings |
| Pre-Market | 30th July | Samsung – Q2 Earnings |
| Pre-Market | 30th July | Pfizer Inc – Q2 Earnings |
| Pre-Market | 30th July | Proctor & Gamble – Q4 Earnings |
| Pre-Market | 30th July | Sony – Q1 2020 Earnings |
| 30th July | Bayer – Q2 Earnings | |
| Pre-Market | 30th July | BP Plc – Q2 Earnings |
| Pre-Market | 31st July | General Electric – Q2 Earnings |
| 31st July | Airbus SE – Q2 Earnings | |
| After-Market | 31st July | Kraft-Heinz – Q2 Earnings |
| Pre-Market | 31st July | Spotify – Q2 Earnings |
| 13.00 BST07.00 BST | 31st July | Fiat Chrysler – Q2 Earnings |
| 31st July | BAE Systems Plc – Q2 Earnings | |
| Pre-Market | 1st August | Shell Plc – Q2 Earnings |
| 07.15 BST | 1st August | Rio Tinto – Q2 Earnings |
| Pre-Market | 1st August | General Motors – Q2 Earnings |
| 1st August | BMW AQ – Q2 Earnings | |
| 07.00 BST | 1st August | Barclays Plc – Q2 Earnings |
| 07.00 BST | 2nd August | Royal Bank of Scotland – Q2 Earnings |
| 2nd August | Berkshire Hathaway – Q2 Earnings | |
| Pre-Market | 2nd August | ExxonMobil Corp – Q2 Earnings |
| 2nd August | BT Group Plc – Q1 202 Earnings |
Coming up on XRay this week. Tune in Live or watch on catch up.
| 17.00 GMT | 29th July | Blonde Markets |
| 15.30 GMT | 30th July | Asset of the Day: Bullion Billions |
| 13.00 GMT | 31st July | Asset of the Day: Indices |
| 09.00 GMT | 1st August | Bank of England special |
| 12.30 GMT | 2nd August | Nonfarm Payrolls LIVE |
Mark these events in your calendar this week:
| Tentative | 30th July | Bank of Japan interest rate decision |
| 01.30 GMT | 31st July | Australia CPI inflation |
| 18.00 GMT | 31st July | FOMC interest rate decision |
| 01.45 GMT | 1st August | China Caixin manufacturing PMI |
| 11.00 GMT | 1st August | Bank of England interest rate decision |
| 14.00 GMT | 1st August | US ISM manufacturing PMI |
| 01.30 GMT | 2nd August | Australia retail sales |
| 12.30 GMT | 2nd August | Nonfarm payrolls |
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