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Week ahead: All eyes on Russia and Ukraine

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    All attention is on the situation in Ukraine after the invasion by Russia. Otherwise, there is the usual round of central bank speakers, decisions from the Bank of Canada and Reserve Bank of Australia and earnings from some of the more speculative end of the tech sector to look forward to. Finally, Friday sees the monthly US jobs report. 

    Ukraine 

    Markets have been tested enormously by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. On Thursday, the ruble plunged to a record low against the USD and the Moscow stock market had its worst single day drop on record. Meanwhile the impact was felt globally as oil prices surged above $100 to levels last seen in 2014. The situation is dynamic, and markets will continue to be on the hook for news flow. 

    OPEC meeting 

    OPEC and allies, including Russia, are due to meet this week. Against the backdrop of surging oil prices and potential sanctions on Russian oil, the meeting comes at a difficult moment in terms of the geopolitics. Can the alliance between Russia and OPEC members survive the current crisis?  

    Central banks 

    The Bank of Canada is due to begin raising rates when it convenes on March 2nd, beginning a brisk hiking cycle The Reserve Bank of Australia meets but is not expected to raise interest rates yet. A hike is not expected until June at the soonest. Meanwhile we are set to hear from Fed chair Jay Powell as he testifies in front of the House Financial Services Committee.  

    Jobs report 

    The monthly nonfarm payrolls report is due Friday. Last time the January figures were much more impressive than expected, gaining +467k vs +110k expected. Wages were up big, jobs growth much better than expected. Also, there were some massive upwards revisions to prior months. This was a reading that seemed to offer the Fed carte blanche to hike rates by 50bps in March – but this was before Russia invaded Ukraine. 

    Economic data 

    Ahead of the NFP numbers we get the ADP jobs report on Wednesday. Seldom a good indicator for the official jobs report, it’s nevertheless a market-moving event. We are also watching for the ISM manufacturing and services PMI reports for the US. 

    Earnings season continues 

    Look for updates from tech names including Zoom, Salesforce, Snowflake and Broadcom. 

    Major economic data (times in GMT) 

    Sun Feb 27 11:50pm JPY Prelim Industrial Production m/m 
      JPY Retail Sales y/y 
    Mon Feb 28 12:00am AUD MI Inflation Gauge m/m 
      NZD Final ANZ Business Confidence 
     12:30am AUD Company Operating Profits q/q 
      AUD Private Sector Credit m/m 
      AUD Retail Sales m/m 
     5:00am JPY Housing Starts y/y 
     7:00am GBP Nationwide HPI m/m 
     7:30am CHF Retail Sales y/y 
     8:00am CHF KOF Economic Barometer 
      CHF GDP q/q 
      EUR Spanish Flash CPI y/y 
     1:30pm CAD Current Account 
      CAD IPPI m/m 
      CAD RMPI m/m 
      USD Goods Trade Balance 
      USD Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m 
     2:45pm USD Chicago PMI 
     9:30pm AUD AIG Manufacturing Index 
    Tue Mar 1 12:30am AUD Current Account 
      JPY Final Manufacturing PMI 
     1:00am CNY Manufacturing PMI 
      CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI 
     1:45am CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI 
     3:30am AUD Cash Rate 
      AUD RBA Rate Statement 
     3:35am JPY 10-y Bond Auction 
     5:30am AUD Commodity Prices y/y 
     7:00am EUR German Retail Sales m/m 
     All Day EUR German Prelim CPI m/m 
     8:15am EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI 
     8:30am CHF Manufacturing PMI 
     8:45am EUR Italian Manufacturing PMI 
     8:50am EUR French Final Manufacturing PMI 
     8:55am EUR German Final Manufacturing PMI 
     9:00am EUR Final Manufacturing PMI 
     9:30am GBP Final Manufacturing PMI 
      GBP M4 Money Supply m/m 
      GBP Mortgage Approvals 
      GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m 
     10:00am EUR Italian Prelim CPI m/m 
     1:30pm CAD GDP m/m 
     2:30pm CAD Manufacturing PMI 
     2:45pm USD Final Manufacturing PMI 
     3:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 
      USD Construction Spending m/m 
      USD ISM Manufacturing Prices 
     All Day USD Wards Total Vehicle Sales 
     Tentative NZD GDT Price Index 
     6:30pm GBP MPC Member Saunders Speaks 
     7:00pm GBP MPC Member Mann Speaks 
     9:45pm NZD Building Consents m/m 
      NZD Overseas Trade Index q/q 
     11:50pm JPY Capital Spending q/y 
      JPY Monetary Base y/y 
    Wed Mar 2 12:01am GBP BRC Shop Price Index y/y 
     12:30am AUD GDP q/q 
     7:45am EUR French Gov Budget Balance 
     8:00am EUR Spanish Unemployment Change 
     8:55am EUR German Unemployment Change 
     10:00am EUR German Buba President Nagel Speaks 
      EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y 
      EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y 
     All Day All OPEC-JMMC Meetings 
     Tentative EUR German 10-y Bond Auction 
     Tentative GBP Annual Budget Release 
     1:15pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 
     2:30pm USD FOMC Member Bullard Speaks 
     3:00pm CAD BOC Rate Statement 
      CAD Overnight Rate 
      USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies 
     3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 
     7:00pm USD Beige Book 
     9:30pm AUD AIG Construction Index 
    Thu Mar 3 12:00am NZD ANZ Commodity Prices m/m 
     12:30am AUD Building Approvals m/m 
      AUD Trade Balance 
     1:45am CNY Caixin Services PMI 
     3:35am JPY 30-y Bond Auction 
     5:00am JPY Consumer Confidence 
     7:30am CHF CPI m/m 
     8:15am EUR Spanish Services PMI 
     8:45am EUR Italian Services PMI 
     8:50am EUR French Final Services PMI 
     8:55am EUR German Final Services PMI 
     9:00am EUR Final Services PMI 
      EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate 
     9:30am GBP Final Services PMI 
     10:00am EUR PPI m/m 
      EUR Unemployment Rate 
     12:30pm EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts 
      USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y 
     1:30pm USD Unemployment Claims 
      USD Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q 
      USD Revised Unit Labour Costs q/q 
     2:45pm USD Final Services PMI 
     3:00pm USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies 
      USD ISM Services PMI 
      USD Factory Orders m/m 
     3:30pm USD Natural Gas Storage 
     4:30pm CAD BOC Gov Macklem Speaks 
     6:30pm GBP MPC Member Tenreyro Speaks 
     8:00pm GBP MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks 
     11:00pm USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks 
     11:30pm JPY Unemployment Rate 
    Fri Mar 4 12:30am AUD Retail Sales m/m 
     7:00am EUR German Trade Balance 
     7:45am EUR French Industrial Production m/m 
     9:30am GBP Construction PMI 
     10:00am EUR Retail Sales m/m 
     Tentative EUR French 10-y Bond Auction 
     Tentative GBP 10-y Bond Auction 
     1:30pm CAD Building Permits m/m 
      CAD Labour Productivity q/q 
      USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 
      USD Non-Farm Employment Change 
      USD Unemployment Rate 
     3:00pm CAD Ivey PMI 

     

     

     

    Key earnings data 

    28.02 01.03 02.03 03.03 04.03 

     

    Viatris (VTRS) PMO 

     

    Lucid Group (LCID) AMC 

     

    Zoom Video Communications (ZM) AMC 

     

    Salesforce.com (CRM) AMC 

     

     

    ChargePoint (CHPT) AMC 

     

     

    Snowflake (SNOW) AMC 

     


     Broadcom (AVGO) AMC 
     

     


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