Thursday Mar 28 2024 12:57
3 min
The S&P 500 index rallied to a record high, the Nikkei fell overnight on a softer Japanese yen, which is now very much on intervention watch after clipping 152. The FTSE 100 trades firmer this morning at its best in over a year, within touching distance of the all-time high.
The gold price is firmer towards $2,200 and oil has rallied off a two-week low.
A shorter trading week for most. US final GDP readings, UoM consumer sentiment and inflation expectations are due today. Tomorrow, Good Friday, sees the release of the US core PCE index — the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. So that could get choppy with volumes thinner than usual. Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell is also due to speak.
With March just about done and the first quarter over, bears have thrown in the towel. Hard landing > soft landing > no landing. The Fed’s preference to tolerate higher inflation and suppress yields to keep the labour market happy has been a positive catalyst for risk.
The S&P 500 index has risen 10% YTD, the Nasdaq +9%. Japanese, European and Australian equity markets have all struck new all-time highs. Even London's FTSE 100 index, a laggard in so many ways lately, is positive for the year and within a whisker of its record.
Gold, bitcoin and cocoa prices have all hit record highs. And yet the dollar is also much stronger this year. Everything is up – print enough and that is what you get. Little wonder people are really starting to fret about the sustainability of debt in the US.
Our Easter special podcast on the cocoa crisis and what prices tell us about climate risks is out today.
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