Thursday Sep 26 2024 07:56
5 min
UK chancellor Rachel Reeves' speech at the Labour Party conference has shed more light on how she will prioritise investment spending: “Growth is the challenge.... and investment is the solution”, she said.
Rachel Reeves should have gone full Frankie Valli.
Growth is the word, is the word that you heard
It's got a groove, it's got a meaning
Growth is the time, is the place, is the motion
Growth is the way we are feeling
But the commitment seems to open the path for more government borrowing to allow more investment in the UK. Current fiscal rules don’t make that much sense — even if the pledge to balance the budget excludes investment, Labour are still hamstrung to bring down net debt as a share of GDP between years four and five of the forecasts, which creates what plenty of clever people think leads to an “inbuilt bias” against investment.
In short, spending more on “investment” not necessarily a bad plan, it’s just a) hugely dependent on what you spend it on – getting the priorities right is crucial, as returns on investment can vary a lot. And b) It’s also relatively amusing that it’s what Liz Truss wanted to do. It’s all about the message — Rachel Reeves and Keir Starmer have worked enormously hard to seem credible to markets in order to get to this point. Where Truss rushed in, Reeves has feared to tread. Until now, maybe.
Meanwhile, PM Starmer is talking tough on sickness benefits claimants. It is fascinating to see a new UK government expend so much political capital early on taking "tough decisions” – i.e. unpopular ones. The plan is part of a) credibility in the market and b) sowing the seeds of growth that will yield fruit four years from now — it’s just not what we are used to!
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The British pound advanced to its highest level against the US dollar since March 2022, with cable reaching 1.3427, which probably has more to do with Fed/BoE divergence than anything else. BoE governor Bailey emphasised the gradual approach to easing in an interview yesterday.
GBPUSD pulled back at 78.6% retracement of the decline from the May ’21 peak above 1.42 to the Sep ’22 low at 1.05 – bulls still have momentum.
European stock markets rallied on Tuesday off the back of the China stimulus boost but are in a bit of a giveback mode this morning. The DAX shed about half a percent from a record high, the CAC made similar losses, whilst the FTSE 100 shed about 0.2% early doors with broader losses capped as miners were still on the front foot. Iron ore hit a three-week high. Crude oil pulled back with other risk assets after hitting a three-week high on Tuesday following the PBoC moves. Copper also handed back some gains after it rallied to its best since the middle of July. US futures were a bit lighter after the S&P 500 hit a record high again.
Spot WTI – struggling to best the Fib resistance levels in the $71-72 area for now. MACD bullish crossover but looking still for confirmation it’s firmly cleared the 21-day EMA.
The gold price made another high overnight – still on the relentless 4D (debt debasement and dollar devaluation) trade here. Extension to $2,725? It's on course to snap its usual September losing streak.
As for the NDX — interesting set-up here to see if it fails at the right shoulder again. Yesterday saw it rally 0.47%.
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