Live Chat

Markets await France, UK elections

Markets await UK elections, price in advent of Labour government

In the UK, the market awaits — with perhaps a smidge too much complacency — the advent of a Labour government. It’s hard to know what will transpire during or after the UK election; politicians have been scared by the Liz Truss episode, which casts a long shadow over policymaking options.

For now, Labour has been at pains not to frighten the horses, but the pressure to lift Britain out of stagnation will only grow the longer Labour are in power; more borrowing seems a certainty.

"Securonomics” is untested and may be more radical than people realise. But the market might not react in the same way. The problem with Truss was policy uncertainty ratcheted up to the max — a Labour government is expected to deliver more clarity. We shall see if that is how it works. UK interest rates are set to come down soon, which will provide cover. If the market sniffs a genuine growth agenda alongside rate cuts, we could see the FTSE 250 outperform.

Choose your points of movement

Сalculate your hypothetical P/L (aggregated cost and charges) if you had opened a trade today.

Market

Shares Search
Shares
Index
Commodity
Bonds
Crypto
ETFs
Currency

Instrument

Search
Clear input
Occidental
Prosus N.V.
Porsche AG
Hermes
CAT
Thermo Fisher
Nikola Corporation
Tilray
Shell plc (LSE)
Skillz Inc
Iberdrola
DeltaAir
CrowdStrike Holdings
Golar LNG
Applied Materials
Snowflake
Royal Bank Canada
Amazon.com
Spotify
Exxon Mobil
CCB (Asia)
McDonald's
Campari
GameStop
Netflix
ON Semiconductor
Costco
Dave & Buster's
Delivery Hero SE
LUCID
Continental
Zoom Video Communications
Schlumberger
Virgin Galactic
Upwork Inc.
Cameco
JP Morgan
Fuelcell
Rivian Automotive
XPeng Inc
Wal-Mart Stores
Trade Desk
Blackstone
Vodafone
Aptiv PLC
L'Oreal
Target
Rio Tinto
Sartorius AG
British American Tobacco
Qorvo
ASOS
Cisco Systems
Nel ASA
Arista
Airbus
Apple
Pfizer
AMC Entertainment Holdings
ASML
Hubspot
Teladoc
Starbucks
SMCI
Canopy Growth
Wish.com Inc
Lockheed Martin
ProSiebenSat.1
IAG
AbbVie
Marston's
Baidu
Teleperformance
Norwegian Air Shuttle
Airbus Group SE
HSBC HK
Block
Annaly Capital
Abbott
LVMH
American Express
Novavax
GoPro
Siemens
Total
SIG
Pinterest Inc
Taiwan Semi
Etsy
Amgen
SONY
3D Systems
UPS
BlackBerry
Gen Digital Inc
Xiaomi
Quanta Services
Unity Software
NVIDIA
Anglo American
Palantir Technologies Inc
Fresnillo
Deere
Rolls-Royce
Porsche
Uber
Vir Biotechnology
American Airlines
ROBLOX Corp
Macy's
FirstRand
easyJet
DISNEY
Aurora Cannabis Inc
BP
Adidas
Boeing Co
Vonovia
Coca-Cola Co (NYSE)
Home Depot
General Electric
Coinbase Inc
ALIBABA HK
Philip Morris
General Motors
PayPal
UniCredit
II-VI
BASF
Kraft Heinz
Alphabet (Google)
Palo Alto Networks
Plug Power
Li Auto
Oracle
Roku Inc
UiPath Inc
Upstart Holdings Inc
F5 Networks
Infinera
Inditex
ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd
Deutsche Bank
Hammerson
IBM
JD.com
Barrick Gold
Lemonade
MerckCo USA
Infosys
Invesco Mortgage
Comcast
Santander
Accenture
Anheuser-Busch Inbev
Visa
Mastercard
T-Mobile
SAP
Wayfair
Beyond Meat
Kuaishou
CarMax
Tesla
Lyft
Medtronic
Adobe
Morgan Stanley
Workday Inc
Blackrock
Vipshop
Meta (Formerly Facebook)
Linde PLC
Micron
Lululemon
Ceconomy
Chipotle
Gilead
Naspers
Bristol Myers
The Cheesecake Factory
Glencore plc
British American Tobacco
ChargePoint Holdings Inc
Twilio
Intel
Lloyds
CNOOC
Electrolux
Wells Fargo
Sea
PG&E
Fedex
Citigroup
Peloton Interactive Inc.
eBay
Microsoft
JnJ
Bilibili Inc
Trump Media & Technology Group
AIA
Nasdaq
Air France-KLM
Allianz
Lithium Americas Corp
Procter & Gamble
Qualcomm
AMD
New Oriental
MercadoLibre.com
Mondelez
Lumentum Holdings
Two Harbors Investment aration
AstraZeneca
Norwegian Cruise Line
Unilever
GoHealth
PepsiCo
Barclays
PETROCHINA
Goldman Sachs
Eli Lilly
HSBC
Cellnex
Berkshire Hathaway
Jumia Technologies
HDFC Bank
RTX Corp
Bayer
Bank of America
Chevron
ADT
DoorDash
Marriott
Nike
AT&T
GSX Techedu
Robinhood
Telecom Italia
Deliveroo Holdings
TUI
Freeport McMoRan
Toyota
BioNTech
Airbnb Inc
Alibaba
Verizon
Nio
Eni
Ford
Volkswagen
UnitedHealth
Shopify
China Life
Snap
Christian Dior
Conoco Phillips
Lufthansa
Tencent
Moderna Inc
Salesforce.com
Broadcom
Diageo
Toro
Cinemark

Account Type

Direction

Quantity

Amount must be equal or higher than

Amount should be less than

Amount should be a multiple of the minimum lots increment

USD Down
$-

Value

$-

Commission

$-

Spread

-

Leverage

-

Conversion Fee

$-

Required Margin

$-

Overnight Swaps

$-
Start Trading

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

All positions on instruments denominated in a currency that is different from your account currency, will be subject to a conversion fee at the position exit as well.

Hundreds of candidates drop out ahead of French election second round

In France, hundreds of candidates have dropped out of second round run-off lists, mainly to stop the Rassemblement National (RN, lit. “National Rally). Le Monde counted 221 candidates who have dropped out of the second round. It limits the chances of RN securing an outright majority in Sunday’s poll, but as we have discussed plenty of times here there are still plenty of risks for markets to consider. Even the more moderate aspects of the RN agenda involve conflict with the EU on key planks of the bloc – domestic subsidies, a rebate for France and deficits. Monthly figures for the French public deficit in May this morning don’t paint a pretty picture.

EURUSD traded a bit firmer and European shares were broadly higher with the CAC 40 index up 1.29% on the day.

US inflation shows no month-on-month change in May

Investors start to lean on Trump win in November, Powell says Fed not ready to cut

On Wall Street, stocks rose to fresh record highs as investors bet more heavily on a Trump win in November and Fed chair Jay Powell indicated the central bank is not ready to cut interest rates. The S&P 500 finished above 5,500 for the first time, while the Nasdaq Composite ended above 18,000.

“We want to be more confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward 2% before we start the process of … loosening policy,” Powell said at the central bank event in Sintra. But this amounts to tightening, as long as real rates are rising, which they are.

And they could rise further if Trump wins the presidential election, which is looking more likely the nearer it gets. There is growing pressure on Joe Biden to quit. US Democratic congressman Lloyd Doggett said he hopes President Biden “will make the painful and difficult decision to withdraw”, while Jared Golden, Democratic congressman from Maine, said “Donald Trump is going to win”. One in three Democrats think Biden should not stand this year.

But as my Overleveraged podcast colleague Helen Thomas from BlondeMoney points out, the Democrats are in a no-win position here.

Fed playing for time as markets position for more inflationary environment

Powell is relaxed about cutting, but there has been a move in the 10-year yield since the Presidential Debate. We have bear steepening – the view is that Trump back in the White House is going to pile on more debt, cut taxes and drive growth, which ought to be positive for stocks and negative for bonds.

Markets seem to be, tentatively at least, positioning for a more inflationary environment than we have now. Which might explain why the Fed is playing for time.


Bearish indicators flash for S&P 500 index, headline Eurozone inflation in line with estimates

SPX breadth is narrow and bearish indicators are starting to flash. BofA notes that only 24% of stocks in the S&P 500 outperformed the index year-to-date, marking the third narrowest 6-month period in history since 1986. Goldman Sachs noted that a bear market usually follows when its Bull/Bear indicator is this elevated.

Eurozone inflation – headline was in line, down to 2.6%, but core was a slight miss, holding steady at 2.9% in June vs the expected decline to 2.8%.

Fed minutes are due tonight after ISM services, weekly jobless claims and the ADP payrolls report. Tomorrow is a holiday in the U.S.

USDJPY is still drifting higher. The Japanese yen drew closer to the 162 mark today but made some gains against the greenback in later trade. USD to JPY stood at 161.63 as of 13:45 GMT.



When considering shares, indices, forex (foreign exchange) and commodities for trading and price predictions, remember that trading CFDs involves a significant degree of risk and could result in capital loss.

Past performance is not indicative of any future results. This information is provided for informative purposes only and should not be construed to be investment advice.

Latest news

Wednesday, 6 November 2024

Indices

U.S. presidential election market volatility drives Bitcoin prices to reach a historic high

Stock market rally

Tuesday, 5 November 2024

Indices

US Election Results Trigger Stock Gains Across Europe, Asia, and US

US Election Trump's victory

Tuesday, 5 November 2024

Indices

Trump Victory Spurs Market Gains and Economic Shift Expectations

Tuesday, 5 November 2024

Indices

US election: bitcoin price (BTC) surged to new record as Trump leading ahead

Live Chat