OPEC+ is reportedly discussing the possibility of pausing oil production increases from October, following the planned monthly increases. This news caused a brief increase in oil prices, before falling back down.
These discussions come as OPEC+ prepares to complete its plan to return about 2.2 million barrels per day of supply to the market by September. With the end of the first phase of large production increases approaching, the focus is now shifting to the next steps.
In its latest report, OPEC lowered its forecast for global oil demand for the next four years, but raised its long-term demand forecast, believing that the peak demand is not yet in sight. OPEC expects global oil demand to average 105 million barrels per day in 2024, 106.3 million barrels per day in 2026, and then rise to 111.6 million barrels per day in 2029.
These forecasts differ from those of other institutions, such as the International Energy Agency (IEA), which expects oil demand to peak in this decade. OPEC believes that growth in developing countries will continue to drive oil demand for many years to come.
Several factors could influence the oil market in the future, including:
Geopolitical events, such as conflicts and political instability in oil-producing regions, can significantly impact oil supply and prices. These events can create uncertainty in the market and lead to price volatility.
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