Global financial markets experienced a volatile week, influenced by a confluence of factors including inflation data, escalating geopolitical tensions, and monetary policy outlooks from major central banks.
Dollar Index: The dollar index experienced significant volatility after a strong start to the week. The index initially rose following the release of June's CPI inflation data, which indicated a slight uptick in inflation, leading to a recalibration of market expectations regarding the magnitude of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. However, the dollar's value later retreated amid conflicting statements from President Trump regarding the potential dismissal of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Rising US Treasury yields, particularly the 30-year Treasury yield surpassing 5%, contributed to dollar support. At the time of writing, the dollar index stands at 98.26.
Major Currencies: The stronger dollar weighed on other currencies, including the British pound, euro, Australian dollar, and Japanese yen. The pound fell against the dollar to its lowest level since May 20, marking its third consecutive week of losses. The dollar rose against the Japanese yen to 148, its highest level since May 13, also marking its third consecutive week of gains. The strong euro faltered for the second consecutive week, amid market expectations that the European Central Bank will hold interest rates steady in July.
Gold: Gold experienced sharp fluctuations this week, with an overall downward trend. The price of gold was influenced by US economic data, rising US Treasury yields, concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence, and tariff policies. Gold experienced a particularly volatile ride on Wednesday, briefly rising above the $3370 level, but paring gains after Trump denied writing a dismissal letter for Powell. At the time of writing, gold is trading at $3355 per ounce.
Silver: Silver rose sharply at the beginning of the week before retreating. Silver surpassed $39 per ounce on Monday, reaching a new high since September 2011, bringing its gains for the year to 35%. At the time of writing, silver is trading at $38.29 per ounce.
Oil: Global oil prices generally declined this week. The resurgence of the trade war cast a shadow over oil demand forecasts, while Trump's threats of sanctions against Russia with a 50-day grace period were not as impactful as previous concerns about immediate supply disruptions. Both benchmarks recorded losses for the first week in three weeks.
Bitcoin: Bitcoin set a new milestone on Monday, surpassing $120,000, with a market capitalization exceeding $2.3 trillion. Bitcoin is up 28% this year. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies exceeded $4 trillion. This growth is attributed to recent gains in the US "Crypto Week", where the House passed three related bills with overwhelming support, and Trump introduced crypto assets into the retirement market.
US Stocks: US stocks continued to perform strongly, driven by positive economic data and corporate earnings. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices both set new record highs. Nvidia's market capitalization surpassed $4.2 trillion, setting a new record.
Financial markets experienced significant turmoil on Wednesday. White House officials revealed that Trump is considering replacing Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, and is exploring the attitudes of members of Congress. This news led to a decline in US stocks, the dollar, and long-term Treasury bonds, while gold and short-term Treasury bonds rose due to increased expectations of interest rate cuts.
However, this turmoil was reversed within an hour. Trump quickly told reporters in the Oval Office that he "has no plans for impeachment at this time." But he still emphasized that he "is not ruling anything out," and suggested that he may impeach Powell "for good cause," citing that the renovation of the Federal Reserve headquarters has significantly exceeded the budget.
Data released on Tuesday showed that the US June overall CPI annual rate rose to 2.7%, the highest since February; the monthly rate rose to 0.3%, the highest since January, in line with market expectations; the core CPI annual rate rose to 2.9%, the highest since February; the monthly rate rose to 0.2%, lower than the market expectation of 0.3%.
US President Trump announced on Tuesday that he may impose additional tariffs on imported drugs and semiconductors by August 1. Tariffs on drugs will be low initially, and pharmaceutical companies will be given about a year to reshore production, after which tariffs may soar to 200%. Semiconductor tariffs will also proceed on a similar timeline.
The National Bureau of Statistics released data on July 15. Preliminary estimates show that China's GDP in the first half of the year was 66053.6 billion yuan, an increase of 5.3% year-on-year at constant prices. Looking at the quarters, the first quarter increased by 5.4% and the second quarter increased by 5.2%, an increase of 1.1% quarter-on-quarter.
According to a report by the British Financial Times on July 15, US President Trump privately encouraged Ukrainian President Zelensky to strengthen deep attacks inside Russia during a telephone call on July 4. The White House responded that Trump was simply asking a question, not encouraging Ukraine to take action.
The US House of Representatives passed the "Genius Act" on Thursday, which establishes a regulatory framework for stablecoins pegged to the US dollar. Under the law, stablecoin issuances must be backed by liquid assets (such as US dollars and short-term Treasury bonds), and issuers must disclose the composition of reserve assets monthly. The bill received significant bipartisan support and was eventually passed by a vote of 308 to 122. The bill will be presented to US President Trump, who is expected to sign it into law.
In its latest monthly report, OPEC maintained its global crude oil demand growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 at 1.29 million barrels per day and 1.28 million barrels per day, respectively. The report indicates that global refinery run rates are expected to remain high, particularly in the United States, to meet increased seasonal transportation fuel demand. Despite trade challenges, global economic growth in the second half of 2025 may be better than current expectations. In addition, OPEC maintained its non-OPEC supply growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at 810,000 barrels per day and 730,000 barrels per day, respectively.
Nvidia announced this week that it will resume sales of H20 chips in China and launched a new GPU for the Chinese market. Huang Renxun was very happy about this, calling it "very, very good news." AMD also confirmed that it will resume exporting MI308 chips to China. The stock prices of the two companies rose after the news, and Nvidia's market value increased by more than one trillion yuan overnight.
US Secretary of State Rubio held a telephone call on Monday of this week with the foreign ministers of France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, and all agreed to set the end of August as a de facto deadline for reaching a nuclear agreement with Iran. The key point of this call is that if no agreement is reached by then, the three European countries will activate the "rapid restoration of sanctions" mechanism.
On July 16, the European Commission announced a long-term budget for 2028-2034 of 2 trillion euros, aimed at enhancing the competitiveness of the European Union and reducing development disparities between member states through strategic investments. The budget priorities include defense, research, agriculture, providing assistance to Ukraine, and addressing climate change and biodiversity protection, and plans to reform agricultural subsidies and economic development funding rules. The budget requires unanimous approval from the 27 member states and approval from the European Parliament.
Three descendants of the Zong family, claiming to be illegitimate siblings of Zong Fuli, the daughter of Wahaha Group founder Zong Qinghou, have filed a lawsuit in the High Court of Hong Kong to claim a $2 billion inheritance. The plaintiffs claimed that Zong Qinghou had established trust funds for them, but the funds were not fully injected. Zong Fuli responded that she knew nothing about it.
OpenAI launched the next generation of AI products ChatGPT Agent in the early hours of July 18. This is an intelligent entity that can think and act independently, and can independently use virtual computers to complete multi-step complex tasks, such as web browsing, data analysis, presentation presentations, etc., to help users efficiently handle tasks such as wedding preparation, meeting organization, and competitor analysis.
Recently, Israel has launched air strikes on Syria for several consecutive days, and the Syrian capital Damascus has also been attacked. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that the Israeli military aims to prevent the Syrian regime from entering the Druze-populated area through its operations, ensure the "demilitarization of the area" and protect Druze communities. He emphasized that Israel will continue to take military action to achieve this goal.
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