Gold and Silver Retreat as Investors Take Profits

In early Asian trading on Thursday, spot gold prices retreated from record highs, dipping below $3520/oz, a daily decrease of over 1%. This pullback was attributed to profit-taking by investors after recent rallies. Spot silver also followed suit, falling below $41/oz, marking a daily drop of 1.5%. However, gold quickly recovered some of its losses, rising $15.

Rate Cut Hopes Underpin Precious Metals

The anticipation of the U.S. Federal Reserve resuming interest rate cuts remains a key driver for gold and silver prices. Investors are awaiting crucial U.S. employment data due later this week, which will serve as a key indicator for the interest rate path.

Expert Perspectives

Brian Lan, managing director at GoldSilver Central, noted that profit-taking was expected, but emphasized that gold remains in a bull market. He added that rate cut expectations and concerns about the Fed's independence would increase safe-haven demand, predicting gold prices could rise to $3800 or higher in the short term. Wall Street analysts are anticipating another weak jobs report. Forecasts suggest nonfarm payrolls will increase by a modest 75,000 in August, and the unemployment rate will rise to nearly a four-year high of 4.3%.

Economic Data Signals Labor Market Weakening

Mounting evidence suggests the labor market is deteriorating. Wednesday's JOLTs report revealed that job openings unexpectedly fell to 7.18 million in July, a 10-month low.

Federal Reserve's Focus on Employment

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has cited the labor market as a key reason for considering rate cuts. Policymakers appear to have rapidly shifted their focus to employment, rather than concerns about rising prices.

Strong Data May Not Deter Rate Cuts

Observers and economists believe that even stronger-than-expected jobs data may not prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates this month. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, estimates a 90% probability of a rate cut.

Future Outlook for Gold Prices

JPMorgan analyst Patrick Jones suggests that a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, meeting or exceeding expectations, should prompt further inflows into gold ETFs, pushing gold prices to around $3675/oz by year-end. He forecasts prices to reach $4000 in the second quarter of next year, and potentially $4250 by the end of 2026.