European economic news preview

Public sector finances data from the UK is the only major report due on Wednesday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.
At 2.00 am ET, the Office for National Statistics releases UK public sector net borrowing data for July. The budget deficit is expected to narrow to GBP 0.5 billion from GBP 13.6 billion in June.

At 4:00 am ET, Poland will release data on industrial production, producer prices, and corporate wages. Economists anticipate that industrial output will increase by 7.3 percent year-over-year in July, following a 0.3 percent rise in June. Producer prices are projected to decrease by 5 percent compared to the previous year, after a 6.1 percent decline in the preceding month.

Keypoints:

1. Current account in Slovakia posted a surplus of EUR 64 million in June. The unemployment rate increased to 5.1% in July.

2. Today, Poland will release series of July’s data: industrial output growth, producer prices, employment and nominal wage growth.

3. At 11 AM CET, Croatia will publish July’s unemployment rate and June’s real wage growth.

European economic data

On Wednesday, Hungary's forint and the Polish zloty experienced slight declines as investors scrutinized a wave of Polish economic data. Meanwhile, the Czech crown reached a monthly high.

Attention was focused on Polish unemployment, wages, and industrial output figures, following comments earlier this week from the president of the National Bank of Poland, who suggested that the bank might modify its monetary policy depending on its evaluation of the macroeconomic situation.

"It cannot be ruled out that the economic situation will develop in such a direction that a discussion on adjusting monetary policy will be justified prior to 2026," Adam Glapinski said.

Croatia's registered unemployment rate increased to 4.8% in July from 4.7% in June, the country's statistical office said on Wednesday. In July, Croatia had 87,798 individuals registered as unemployed with labor offices, marking a 3.5% increase from the previous month but a 15.4% decrease compared to the same month last year, according to the statistical office's monthly report. The number of employed people in Croatia stood at 1.739 million in July.

The euro-dollar exchange rate

The USD remains under pressure due to positive risk sentiment and anticipated rate cuts from the Fed, which are expected to boost global growth. These factors generally weigh on the greenback.

In fact, the strengthening of the EUR has largely been influenced by developments on the USD side. The ECB is also anticipated to implement a rate cut in September and possibly another by year-end.
Attention will shift to tomorrow’s Flash PMIs and Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday.

EURUSD has been in a steady rally since August 15, when it hit support at 1.0950, and it is currently testing the key resistance zone of 1.1130, a zone that stopped the bulls from heading further north back in December, as well as back in July, 2023. Overall, the pair is trading above a short-term uptrend line drawn from the low of August 2, and well above the upper bound of a prior sideways range, at around 1.0900.

When considering shares, indices, forex (foreign exchange) and commodities for trading and price predictions, remember that trading CFDs involves a significant degree of risk and could result in capital loss.

Past performance is not indicative of any future results. This information is provided for informative purposes only and should not be construed to be investment advice.