The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is poised to see its capabilities enhanced following an exemption from the federal hiring freeze. This move comes at a crucial time, as the BLS faces challenges in collecting accurate consumer price data, which is vital for calculating inflation.
The BLS has posted over 24 part-time positions, aiming to bolster price data collection. This marks the first major hiring push this year, following restrictions imposed by the Trump administration's hiring freeze, which forced the BLS to curtail its price data collection efforts that underpin inflation statistics.
While the hiring freeze was initially slated to last until at least mid-October, a BLS spokesperson confirmed in an email that the agency has secured an exception to hire CPI data collectors.
The new positions are spread across the United States, from Tampa, Florida, to Anchorage, Alaska. Responsibilities include visiting stores and residences to record prices of goods and rents. The hourly wage ranges from $20 to $25, depending on the region.
In recent months, the shortage of data collectors forced the BLS to reduce the volume of price data collected, resorting to "imputation" to estimate missing data. In some cities, such as Lincoln, Nebraska, Buffalo, New York, and Provo, Utah, field data collection had been completely suspended.
Nationwide staff shortages have also constricted the scope of data collection. Omair Sharif, an analyst at Inflation Insights, estimates that the BLS is currently failing to collect approximately 19% of its targeted price samples.
The BLS has been under significant pressure, particularly after former President Trump dismissed BLS chief Erika McEntarfer in early August following a disappointing jobs report. Sharif suggests that increasing staff numbers could enhance data reliability.
"If these positions are filled quickly, the proportion of imputed prices in the CPI is likely to decline significantly in the coming months, thereby substantially reducing the current margin of error in inflation estimates," he wrote in a note to clients.
By bolstering its ability to collect accurate data, the BLS may be better positioned to provide a more precise picture of inflation in the United States. This, in turn, can help policymakers and consumers make informed decisions about the economy.
While human data collectors are vital, exploring the potential for technology like AI-powered price scanners and mobile apps could further enhance efficiency and accuracy in the long term. Combining human observation with technological advancements could lead to a more robust and comprehensive CPI data collection process.
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