Morning Note: ADP Jobs Data, Dow Peaks, and Bitcoin: Market Movers Ahead

ADP Jobs Data, Dow Peaks, and Bitcoin: Market Movers Ahead

ADP NonFarm Employment Change: Preview of NFP

Today, the market will be paying close attention to the release of the ADP NonFarm Employment Change, a key indicator for measuring job creation in the private sector in the United States. This report is widely seen as a preview of the Payroll (NFP), which will be released on Friday. Today's data is expected to show 166,000 new jobs created in the last month, reflecting the resilience of the US labour market amid global economic challenges. If the number comes in above expectations, it could reinforce the perception of a buoyant labour market, positively influencing the appetite for risk assets and potentially strengthening the dollar.

Dow Jones near all-time high

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is trading near all-time highs. Investor optimism is being driven by both solid corporate earnings and the favourable macroeconomic environment. A positive surprise in today’s ADP data could provide the catalyst needed for the Dow to renew its highs, reflecting the direct impact of a robust labour market.

In addition, the Trump administration’s future economic policies, which are likely to be marked by fiscal stimulus and tax cuts, can be supportive of the corporate environment in the coming months and provide a solid foundation for stock market growth in 2025. Should the jobs data come in line with expectations or above, optimism is likely to intensify, further solidifying the bullish move in the index.

November Services PMI in the US

Another key data on investors’ radar today is the November services sector PMI. The services sector is a vital component of the U.S. economy, accounting for more than two-thirds of the country’s economic activity. The previous reading was 55, while today’s data is expected to read 57, indicating a possible acceleration in the sector’s expansion.

A PMI that beats expectations will be interpreted as a sign of additional economic strength, supporting optimism regarding the economic recovery. A better-than-expected result could also increase the chances of a more vigilant Federal Reserve, directly influencing the dollar's trajectory.

Bitcoin hesitant to touch the 100k mark?

In the last weeks, Bitcoin (BTC) has been attracting attention with its impressive upward trend, approaching the psychological $100,000 mark. Although it has reached levels close to this value, the asset seems hesitant to break through it, facing resistance as investors evaluate the next steps.

This hesitation to reach 100k reflects both technical and psychological aspects. On the technical side, many traders are taking profits near this level, reinforcing the selling. On the psychological side, the round number of 100k represents an important symbolic milestone, which naturally increases the volatility around this price.

On the other hand, the macroeconomic scenario continues to favour Bitcoin. Geopolitical instability in Europe and the Middle East is increasing the appeal of assets considered "safe havens". The uncertainty surrounding regional conflicts, combined with global inflationary concerns, has increased the search for decentralized and policy-resistant assets, such as Bitcoin.

Furthermore, the narrative that Bitcoin can act as a hedge against crises and traditional financial systems continues to gain traction. Should global tensions continue to escalate, demand for the cryptocurrency is likely to remain high, creating conditions for an eventual break of the psychological 100k barrier.

When considering shares, indices, forex (foreign exchange) and commodities for trading and price predictions, remember that trading CFDs involves a significant degree of risk and could result in capital loss.

Past performance is not indicative of any future results. This information is provided for informative purposes only and should not be construed to be investment advice.