Morning Note: Bitcoin Dips, U.S. Consumer Confidence, and S&P 500 Falls

Bitcoin Declines as Tariff Fears Grip Market

Bitcoin's market dipped after President Donald Trump's announcement during a press conference on February 24 with French President Emmanuel Macron, where he affirmed that the proposed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico would move forward as planned. At the same time, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which gauges market sentiment on a scale from 0 to 100, fell to 25 on February 25, signalling a condition of "Extreme Fear."

(BTC/USD Daily Chart, Source: Trading View)

From a technical analysis perspective, the Bitcoin price broke above the descending channel at the beginning of November, showing significant bullish momentum that pushed the price upward, surpassing the $100,000 level. However, a double-top candlestick pattern formed mid-January, signalling a potential price reversal. The price is currently retesting the support zone. If it manages to hold support at this level, there is a strong possibility that the price will move upward again, retesting the swap zone.

U.S Consumer Confidence is Expected to Decline

In January 2025, the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index registered at 104.1, falling short of the projected 105.7, signalling a modest dip in consumer sentiment. The upcoming February reading is anticipated to either hold steady or experience a minor decrease, with economic uncertainty and persistent inflation shaping the public's outlook. While a robust job market continues to support consumer confidence, worries over inflation, escalating costs and global geopolitical tensions contribute to a cautious sentiment. As these influences persist, consumer confidence is expected to stay somewhat restrained in the short term.

(U.S Dollar Index Daily Chart, Source: Trading View)

From a technical analysis perspective, the overall trend of the U.S. dollar index has been bullish since the end of September, as indicated by the higher highs and higher lows. However, the index started to decline in early February, marked by a significant double-top candlestick pattern. Currently, the price is retesting the previously broken swap zone. If it fails to close above or within this swap zone, it is highly likely that the bearish momentum will continue pushing the price downward.

S&P 500 Falls as Tariff Concerns Rise

The S&P 500 Index closed lower on Monday as investors reacted to President Donald Trump's recent comments about the U.S. potentially imposing tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Concerns over tariffs still influence market sentiment, with traders evaluating the effects of changing U.S. trade policies. Furthermore, the Dallas Federal Reserve indicated a sharper-than-anticipated drop in Texas manufacturing activity, which has fallen into contraction territory amid increasing uncertainty related to tariffs, as reported by business executives.

(S&P 500 Index Daily Chart, Source: Trading View)

From a technical analysis perspective, the overall trend of the S&P 500 index remains bullish, as evidenced by the higher highs and higher lows within the ascending channel since early August. However, the index has faced rejection twice at the same resistance zone and is currently declining with significant bearish momentum. It is highly likely to retest the lower boundary of the channel and the support zone. If it breaks below this support zone, there is a strong possibility that bearish forces will regain control, driving the index further downward.

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Past performance is not indicative of any future results. This information is provided for informative purposes only and should not be construed to be investment advice.