Israel Gaza Conflict: Is a New Offensive on the Horizon?

Israeli Divisions Over Gaza: Is a New Offensive Looming?

Tensions are escalating in Israel as pressure mounts on the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to launch a new offensive in the Gaza Strip, potentially even reoccupying the entire area. Simultaneously, sharp divisions are unfolding between the government and military leadership, further complicating the landscape. Cabinet ministers have taken the unusual step of publicly asserting that the military will obey all orders issued by the government, including the occupation of the remaining areas of Gaza that are not yet under Israeli control. In a three-hour consultation, Netanyahu conferred with several senior commanders, including IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir, in preparation for Thursday's full formal meeting of the Security Cabinet.

Threats to Expand Military Operations

Israel has threatened to expand its military offensive to include additional areas of Gaza to pressure Hamas to release the remaining Israeli hostages. However, the IDF strongly opposes a full reoccupation of the territory, citing the potential to endanger hostage lives, overstretch already weary ground troops, and place the full burden of administering the territory on the IDF. Netanyahu's office issued a brief statement saying: "The IDF is prepared to execute any decision made by the Security Cabinet." But Israeli media reported, citing unnamed sources, that significant disagreements exist between the Prime Minister and Zamir, who was appointed by Netanyahu in March.

Political and Military Tensions

Zamir has been touted by Netanyahu's allies as an "offensive" general who will more aggressively push military operations against Hamas. In this context, hardline National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir stated on X: "The Chief of Staff must make it clear that he will fully comply with the directives of the political leadership, even if they decide to occupy (all of Gaza) and defeat (Hamas)." Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that the IDF Chief of Staff "has the right and responsibility... to express his position in the appropriate forums," but warned that "once the political leadership makes a decision, the IDF must implement it resolutely and professionally... until the goals of the war are achieved."

Stalled Negotiations and Their Impact

It should be noted that negotiations between Israel and Hamas for a 60-day partial ceasefire broke down last month, with both sides exchanging accusations. Hamas increased some of its demands, while Netanyahu refused to commit to any agreement that would lead to a complete end to the conflict. US and Israeli officials now believe that Hamas does not intend to reach an agreement and is currently considering "alternative options" for the release of the remaining 50 hostages. Netanyahu appears to have support from the Trump administration, refusing to end the war unless all hostages are released and Hamas is disarmed.

Potential Scenarios and Their Consequences

Trump did not comment specifically on whether Israel would expand its offensive to include the remaining 25% of Gaza that the IDF has not yet controlled. The vast majority of Gaza's 2.1 million residents are concentrated in this area, and the humanitarian situation there is dire, with international aid organizations warning of an imminent famine. Amidst these developments, the question remains: What are the potential scenarios in Gaza? Will the region witness a new military escalation or is there an opportunity to return to the negotiating table? The answer to these questions will determine the fate of millions of Palestinians and Israelis alike.