Morning Note: Oil Jumps on Geopolitics; US JOLTs Eyed; USD/JPY Outlook

WTI oil jumps, but can the rise be sustained?

WTI crude oil futures rallied on Monday, reacting to heightened geopolitical risks that stoked fears of constrained global supply. At the time of writing, the commodity is currently balancing slightly below the 63-dollar mark.

The advance followed inconclusive peace talks between Russia and Ukraine on Monday—their second direct meeting after a recent surge in hostilities, which failed to produce meaningful progress in ending the protracted conflict. In parallel, an Iranian official signalled Tehran’s likely rejection of a U.S.-backed nuclear deal proposal, citing inadequate concessions on sanctions relief and uranium enrichment limits.

Supply-side pressures were further compounded by a wildfire in Canada’s Alberta region, which disrupted local oil and gas output. However, OPEC+ tempered market jitters by maintaining its planned production hike for July at previously agreed levels, avoiding a more aggressive supply increase. Given that the global economy is still performing relatively well, demand for oil remains the same. However, any slight drop in supply or a hint towards a slowdown in production might signal that oil prices will jump. That said, economic uncertainty remains a hot topic, meaning that downside risks also have a place to be. If any of the OPEC+ members decide to resume their output increases, and we continue to see the escalation of the tariff wars between China and the US, this could result in weaker global demand for oil.

WTI oil technical outlook

On the first trading day of June, we saw WTI oil prices pushing sharply higher, fueled by geopolitical tensions, which could lead to supply-side issues. That said, given the factors discussed in the above paragraph, WTI oil price could still end up moving lower overall.

Although we may see another temporary push higher, for now, the overall trend remains to the downside, as we continue to trade below a medium-term downside resistance line taken from the current highest point of this year. If that line continues to provide resistance, the bulls might get spooked from the field, possibly opening the door for a reversal back down. That’s when we will aim for the 60-dollar area again, a break of which could set the stage for a move to the 57 zone, which is near a short-term tentative upside support line, drawn from the lowest point of April.

Alternatively, a break of the previously discussed downside line may attract more buyers into the game, as WTI oil might also clear a key resistance barrier at 65. That’s when the path could be cleared for a move to the highest point of April, at around 72.25.

US JOLTs are on the watch today, at 14:00 GMT

Job openings in the United States dropped by 288,000 to 7.192 million in March 2025, marking the lowest level in six months and falling significantly short of market expectations of 7.48 million. The decline was widespread, with the most notable decreases in transportation, warehousing, and utilities; accommodation and food services; construction; federal government; real estate and rental and leasing; and health care and social assistance.

However, some sectors saw an uptick in openings, including finance and insurance, other services, state and local education, wholesale trade, and manufacturing. Regionally, job openings decreased in the Northeast, South, and West, while the Midwest experienced an increase.

Meanwhile, hiring activity remained steady at 5.4 million, and total separations saw little change at 5.1 million. Within separations, quits held steady at 3.3 million, while layoffs and discharges edged down slightly to 1.6 million.

Today, the indicator is expected to show another decline, going from the previous 7.192 mln to 7.100 mln. If so, this could raise concerns about the potentially worsening labour market in the US. Investors may consider that the upcoming ADP and NFP readings could also be on the lower side. However, we suggest not to establish a direct link between the three job indicators, as all of them have their own methodology when approaching calculations.

USDJPY technical outlook

Overall, USDJPY continues to drift lower, while trading below a medium-term downside resistance line taken from the current highest point of 2025. At one point last week, the pair showed willingness to move higher. However, it failed to reach the downside line, and the rate moved lower, driven by overall market fears.

If USDJPY continues to trade below the aforementioned downside line, we will stay bearish, at least in the near-term outlook. To get even more comfortable with further declines, a drop below the 142.00 territory would be needed. This way, we may start aiming for the psychological 140.00 area, or even below it.

On the upside, a break of the previously mentioned downside line would change the direction of the current trend, meaning that there could be more bulls jumping in. We could then target the highest point of May, at 148.45. Around there, USDJPY may test the 200-day EMA on our daily chart, a break of which could set the stage for a further push north, possibly aiming for the 150.00 zone.

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Past performance is not indicative of any future results. This information is provided for informative purposes only and should not be construed to be investment advice.