Jumat Sep 20 2024 13:39
4 min
J.P. Morgan was out with this yesterday:
“Over the past 40 years, the Fed has cut rates 12 times with the S&P 500 within 1% of an all-time highs. The market was higher a year later all 12 times with an average return of around 15%”.
The S&P 500 index, meanwhile, closed yesterday’s trading up 1.7% at 5,713.64 — a record high.
The dollar continues to linger at multi-month lows. Sterling has gone to $1.33, its best in a long time, with the Bank of England standing pat on rates. The UK now has higher rates for an economy that is growing at a speed about one third that of the US and inflation is lower — go figure. The Bank of Japan was also unchanged overnight.
This week the Federal Reserve went large, opting for a 50-basis-point cut, while the BoE and Norges Bank stood still, South Africa’s Reserve Bank cut for the first time in years, and Brazil hiked — which means monetary policy divergence is back. Combined with the Fed doing the jumbo cut, it’s a) good news for emerging markets and b) good news for FX volatility — if that’s your thing.
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The BoJ stood still and said there is no need to hurry rate hikes — given the Fed’s jumbo move another kick in the guts to the low volume carry would have been unnecessary. But a key inflation gauge has accelerated for a fourth straight month, so they will have to hike at some point. The South African central bank was able to kick off its easing cycle, largely thanks to the Fed, I suppose, but also because inflation has cooled a lot.
August’s 4.4% print was the first time it dipped below the midpoint of the SARB’s 3-6% target range in more than three years. Brazil is going the other direction and it seems the hike was about restoring credibility (note, I am not a watcher of LatAm markets). The Norges Bank is seen cutting soon, while the Bank of England is seen cutting even sooner.
The gold price rallied to fresh all-time highs this morning – rates down, economy purring along nicely – the hedge against reacceleration in inflation is clearly a factor here beyond simple weak dollar/lower real yields mechanics.
There appears to be no stopping the 4D trade (debt debasement and dollar devaluation) and I can’t see why we don’t get to $3,000 in the next year, though we are ripe for a retracement at this stage with the extension higher maybe needing some consolidation.
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