Iran Nuclear Deal Talks Stall: UN Sanctions Revival Looms

Diplomatic Impasse Threatens Iran Nuclear Deal

Foreign media reports indicate that representatives from the UK, France, Germany, and Iran convened on Tuesday to discuss ways to avert the reimposition of UN sanctions on Iran, but the talks ended without an agreement.

A well-informed diplomat revealed that concerned parties will continue efforts to find a solution before the deadline set by the E3 (UK, France, and Germany) at the end of this month. Failing a resolution, the E3 might trigger the “snapback mechanism” enshrined in the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, citing Iran's failure to comply with the agreement's terms.

If the snapback mechanism is activated, all previous UN sanctions on Iran would be reinstated, including the conventional arms embargo, restrictions on ballistic missile development, asset freezes, travel bans, and the prohibition of nuclear-related technology production.

Geneva Talks Fail to Yield Results

An informed diplomat stated that the talks held in Switzerland between the UK, France, Germany, and Iran “did not produce a final result.” The diplomat requested anonymity because they were not authorized to publicly discuss sensitive negotiations.

The Iranian Foreign Ministry announced the talks on Monday, following a previous meeting between the E3 and Iran in Istanbul on July 25.

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi stated on platform X that Tehran is “still committed to diplomacy” and that now is the “right time” for European countries to “make the right choice and give diplomacy time and space.”

Growing Concerns About Iran's Nuclear Program

European nations are increasingly concerned about Iran’s nuclear program, which had enriched uranium to near weapons-grade levels before the outbreak of the 12-day Israeli-Iranian conflict in June. Following strikes on its nuclear facilities, Tehran suspended full cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

This has reduced the international community’s knowledge of Iran's nuclear program, especially regarding the status of its 60% enriched uranium stockpile, just a small technical step away from the 90% weapons-grade level.

Lingering Concerns on Nuclear Issues

Iran has long insisted its nuclear program is peaceful, but it is the only non-nuclear-weapon state enriching uranium at such high levels. The US, IAEA, and others believe Iran had a nuclear weapons program before 2003.

Earlier this year, European countries agreed with the US to trigger the mechanism by the end of August if Iran failed to meet several conditions, including resuming nuclear talks with the US, allowing UN inspectors access to its nuclear facilities, and explaining the status of its over 400-kilogram high-enriched uranium stockpile.

IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi stated in an interview with Fox News on Tuesday that an international team of nuclear inspectors had returned to Iran for the first time since the conflict with Israel in June and the US military's use of deep-penetrating bombs against Iranian nuclear facilities.

This new development indicates that Iran is taking the looming threat of European sanctions seriously, despite strong rhetoric.

A diplomat close to the IAEA told foreign media that while the scope of access agreement between the UN inspection agency and Iran has not yet been finalized, an agreement is expected. Current inspections are limited to nuclear facilities that were not damaged in US and Israeli airstrikes.

Back on the Sanctions Path

The snapback mechanism in the 2015 Iran nuclear deal allows any party to reinstate all prior sanctions if it determines that Iran has not fulfilled its obligations. The aim is to quickly restore all previous sanctions, without the veto power of the UN Security Council's permanent members.

The E3 nations feel pressed for time, as the mechanism will expire on October 18 unless the Security Council agrees to extend it. Last Sunday, Russia submitted a draft resolution proposing to extend the deadline to next spring, giving Iran more time. Russian Deputy Permanent Representative to the UN Dmitry Polyanskiy stated on Tuesday that a second version of the draft resolution had been circulated in the Security Council.

“Hopefully it will be adopted, I think it will be a litmus test for which countries truly want to maintain diplomatic efforts, and which do not want to seek diplomatic solutions, but rather seek to confront Iran out of narrow nationalism and selfish agendas,” Polyanskiy said.

However, since the draft resolution does not explicitly mention the conditions set by European countries for Iran, the Russian effort is unlikely to gain sufficient support among the 15 members of the Security Council.

Iran insists that European countries have no right to reimpose UN sanctions through the snapback mechanism, arguing that European countries failed to fulfill their obligations after US President Trump withdrew from the agreement in 2018.

Under the 2015 agreement, Iran pledged to limit uranium enrichment activities in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions. UN inspectors are responsible for monitoring this program.