CFD’er er komplekse instrumenter, og der er en stor risiko forbundet med disse for at miste penge på grund af gearing. 74.2 % af detailinvestorerne har tab på deres konto, når de handler CFD’er med denne udbyder.Du skal overveje, om du forstår, hvordan CFD’er fungerer, og om du har råd til at løbe en stor risiko for at miste dine penge.
Fredag Jul 14 2023 11:21
2 min
This week we had a two-year low for the US CPI, which fell to 3%. Core inflation fell to a lower-than-forecast 4.8% from 5.3%. More disinflation was evident as US PPI slowed to a lower-than-expected 0.1% YoY in June, from 0.9% in May. It was the weakest pace since Aug 2020 and is down from the all-time high of 11.7% from March 2022. It all looks rather encouraging and is firing up the soft landing bulls.
But market pricing may be over-optimistic. Fed funds futures indicate another 25bps hike to 5.5% – one and done, before the central bank is seen reversing course and cutting around 6 times to 3.8% by the end of 2024. This seems wildly optimistic – if the Fed cuts that much it would be because of a hard landing. For now the market is having its cake and eating it – soft landing + multiple rate cuts. Both cannot be true.
Next week we will be looking to the UK, where inflation is proving much harder to shake. Headline CPI inflation remained at 8.7% in May, refusing to come down as expected, whilst the core reading jumped even higher, rising from 6.8% to 7.1%, the highest since 1992.
Wall Street rallied for a fourth day in a row after the PPI number cemented the disinflation-soft landing narrative, with the US 2yr Treasury almost hitting 4.6%, from 5% a week ago. With yields down and the dollar falling off a cliff the Nasdaq added another 1.6% and the S&P 500 rose 0.85% for fresh YTD highs. European stock markets were steady in early trading on Friday but on course for weekly gains of around 2-4%. The S&P 500 is up 2.5% for the week so far, whilst the Nasdaq has risen 3.5%. Bank earnings today, as well as the UoM consumer sentiment survey.
The dollar is catching a little relief this morning after a sharp fall this week on lower Treasury yields. GBPUSD has risen above 1.31 to scale a fresh 15-month high.
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