Lululemon's SWOT analysis, LULU has seen its shares decline 4% since it announced increases in its revenue and earnings guidance for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024 on Jan. 13, 2025.
In the third quarter of fiscal year 2024, Lululemon achieved a 9% year-over-year increase in revenue, exceeding consensus expectations. The company's international markets performed exceptionally well, particularly in China, which saw a remarkable 39% growth compared to the previous year. According to InvestingPro data, Lululemon maintains a strong financial performance with a current ratio of 2.0, indicating sufficient liquidity to support its expansion initiatives. However, the US market showed relatively flat growth, meeting expectations but raising concerns about future domestic potential.
Lululemon's financial health appears robust, with positive trends in key performance indicators. The company's gross and operating margins surpassed expectations, contributing to an earnings per share (EPS) of $2.87 for the quarter, exceeding the consensus estimate of $2.71. This strong performance prompted some analysts to raise their price targets and maintain favorable ratings on the stock.
Although Lululemon has a strong reputation for product innovation, recent execution challenges have raised concerns among investors and analysts. Despite these hurdles, InvestingPro analysis indicates that the company maintains a "GREAT" overall financial health score, particularly excelling in profitability (4.38/5) and growth (3.54/5). However, issues with the Breezethrough collection led to halted sales and impacted projections for the latter half of the year. This setback emphasizes the critical nature of successful product launches and the risks associated with innovation missteps.
Management has acknowledged these challenges and is implementing measures to address them. Initiatives include improved coordination within the product team and a heightened focus on colors and prints to enhance product freshness. The company anticipates that product "newness" will return to historical levels by the first quarter of fiscal year 2025, potentially paving the way for improved performance in the US market.
Lululemon's international expansion remains a significant growth driver for the company. Strong performance in China and other global markets has helped mitigate the slower growth observed in North America. Analysts see this international momentum as crucial for future growth, with opportunities for increased brand awareness and new store openings abroad.
The company is also exploring growth avenues through seasonal innovations in colors and categories, including golf and tennis. These initiatives could enable Lululemon to capture additional market share and diversify its product offerings.
The athletic apparel market is highly competitive, with Lululemon facing pressure from both established brands and new entrants. Nevertheless, some analysts believe Lululemon is well-positioned to gain market share from competitors like Nike. The company's commitment to high-quality products and a strong brand presence continues to differentiate it in the market.
Lululemon (LULU) has updated its revenue expectations for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024, projecting growth of 11-12%, which translates to revenues between $3.56 billion and $3.58 billion. This revised guidance is an increase from the previous forecast of $3.48 billion to $3.51 billion. When accounting for the additional 53rd week in fiscal 2024, organic revenue growth is anticipated to be around 6-7% for the quarter.
The leading athleisure retailer also improved its profit outlook, expecting earnings per share for the fourth quarter to range between $5.81 and $5.85, up from the earlier estimate of $5.56 to $5.64.
Additionally, Lululemon anticipates a 30 basis point increase in gross margin compared to the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023. This marks a significant improvement over the prior guidance, which had forecasted a decrease of 20-30 basis points. The company also expects a reduction in selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses, estimating a deleverage of 80-90 basis points, better than the previously projected increase of 90-100 basis points.
In a positive sign for investors, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Lululemon’s earnings per share (EPS) for fiscal 2024 and 2025 has risen by 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively, over the past week. This upward revision in earnings estimates reflects a bullish sentiment regarding the stock's future performance. Specifically, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Lululemon’s fourth-quarter fiscal 2024 EPS increased by 0.9% in the past seven days, underscoring optimism about the company’s short-term outlook.
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Past performance is not indicative of any future results. This information is provided for informative purposes only and should not be construed to be investment advice.
