First 100 days of Trump 2.0 are often viewed as a critical period where initial policies, actions, and market reactions set the tone for the future, the performance of assets like U.S. stocks, gold, and oil may vary based on several factors.
Wall Street investors believe that, at least in the short term, certain asset classes like gold and Bitcoin may be destined to repeat their performances following Trump's first inauguration in 2017.
The sentiment surrounding Trump’s second term is generally optimistic. Since the presidential election, the benchmark S&P 500 index has risen nearly 4%, with a 2.9% increase last week, marking its best weekly performance since early November.
However, this strong performance does not reflect the uncertainties currently enveloping the market. Investors are debating whether the stock market can continue its bullish trend in the face of expected tariffs, a weakening rate-cut cycle, and skepticism towards the new government’s regulatory policies.
In this context, CNBC Pro analyzed the performance of certain assets during the first 100 days of Trump’s first term and asked three investors whether history might repeat itself this time. Here are their insights.
US stock market: during the first 100 days of Trump’s first term, all three major U.S. stock indices surged: the S&P 500 rose by 5.3%, the Dow Jones increased by 6.1%, and the Nasdaq climbed by 9.2%. This time, however, investors indicated that the market may not see such substantial gains again.
Jeff Kilburg, founder and CEO of KKM Financial, said, "Compared to Trump 1.0, we saw the S&P 500 with nearly 25% returns over two consecutive years. It’s difficult to replicate the previous term’s scenario unless consumer strength and corporate profits grow."
Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth Management, added that it makes sense for a pause in the rally as investors assess what the new government may bring.
He told CNBC, "This year, we’ll have a new government, and new policies will bring uncertainty… I think investors will largely take a wait-and-see approach, which has been very evident so far this year. The U.S. stock market has been basically flat year-to-date."
In terms of sectors, in 2017, during the first 100 days of Trump’s presidency, the technology sector rose by 11.5%, while the energy sector fell by 8.2%. However, this year so far, the energy sector is leading the market with a 9.2% increase, while tech stocks (down 0.2%) are the second worst-performing sector in the S&P 500. All three investors consulted by CNBC Pro believe that energy stocks may continue to dominate in the future.
"The supply-demand balance for energy products is much more in line with what commodity prices reflect," Hogan said. "The valuations of energy stocks are very, very reasonable, and dividends are generally attractive. This will be one of the better-performing sectors."
While AI trading will continue to boost technology stocks, investors believe the sector won’t outperform as dramatically in 2025 as it has in the past. "We need to lower our expectations; we won’t see the parabolic growth we’ve seen in the last few years," Kilburg said. "Tech will still be a theme in 2025, but I think there will be a massive repricing in the first half of this year simply because their pace of growth has been too large and too fast."
Regarding other sectors, both Hogan and Kilburg believe healthcare may outperform in the near future.
Hogan also emphasized that financial stocks represent another attractive sector, given a healthier banking rate environment and increased capital market activity.
Oil prices experienced significant volatility during the first 100 days of Trump’s first term but ultimately closed lower than they started. All three investors predict that this time, oil prices will rise.
Kilburg stated, "My argument is that if Trump can bring peace to the Middle East—he seems to have already brought peace before his inauguration—then oil prices will rise."
Indeed, WTI and Brent crude oil futures both increased by over 8% in 2025.
Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group, mentioned that new U.S. sanctions against Russian oil producers could be another potential catalyst for rising oil prices.
Hogan added that Trump's relaxation of regulations during his second term could help with energy distribution and transportation, ultimately benefiting overall supply.
Boockvar noted that while U.S. gasoline prices rose from January to April 2017, predicting their trajectory this time may be more challenging, as gasoline prices have yet to reflect the increase in crude oil prices.
Hogan believes that as long as oil prices remain in a range-bound fluctuation, gasoline prices will remain stable. "We may see the average price of WTI crude oil between $75 and $85 per barrel. That equates to gasoline prices around $3 per gallon, assuming everything stays the same," he said, "I don’t think there will be much change in that regard."
All three investors believe that gold will rise in the next 100 days, just like in 2017.
Hogan cited geopolitical uncertainty as a catalyst, while Kilburg pointed to concerns over inflation.
"Faced with a strong dollar and rising real interest rates, gold can rebound due to strong demand from central banks. I don’t think this will change with the new government taking office," Boockvar added. "If there’s any change, it’s that with new tariffs under the new government, people may be more inclined to buy gold," he said.
On the other hand, Hogan noted that a government more favorable to cryptocurrencies and broader adoption of Bitcoin will certainly continue to push the price of this flagship cryptocurrency higher.
On Monday, Bitcoin extended last week's gains, breaking the $100,000 mark.
However, Kilburg believes that cryptocurrencies may experience a pullback in the future. "As the old saying goes, buy the rumor, sell the news. If the new government doesn’t buy Bitcoin in the first 100 days, we will see a pullback in Bitcoin," he said.
From January to April 2017, the dollar appreciated against other major currencies. Since Trump's re-election, the dollar has also strengthened under his more protectionist and tariff-supporting policies.
However, both Boockvar and Hogan believe this rebound may quickly lose momentum.
"I have a feeling Trump will want a weaker dollar. So, if necessary, I suspect most of the dollar's gains have already been priced in," Boockvar said.
Hogan added that a decline in U.S. GDP growth could limit a strong dollar in the short term. "I think as the new government comes into power, the dollar might be peaking… but I certainly don’t think it will collapse at any time."
On the other hand, Kilburg is more optimistic, believing the dollar will continue to rise. "I think the dollar will continue to increase, but it won’t rise another 10% unless we see major tariffs," he said.
Since 2017, U.S. benchmark Treasury yields have risen sharply. As of last Friday's close, the 2-year Treasury yield was about 4.283%, while the 10-year yield was 4.623%.
As the front end of the yield curve is driven by the federal funds rate, all three investors unanimously believe that the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield may remain at current levels.
Hogan stated, "The 2-year Treasury yield will likely continue to reflect the market's interpretation of the Fed's monetary policy; if the Fed only cuts rates once more this year, then that yield might be just right."
He added that the 10-year Treasury yield better reflects investor sentiment about economic growth and may stabilize between 4.25% and 4.75%.
Conversely, Boockvar and Kilburg both believe long-term bond yields will rise.
Kilburg suggested that the yield curve might temporarily steepen as bondholders demand more premium for the risks they are taking. "I actually believe the 10-year Treasury yield will exceed 5% in the near term. Then some large institutions holding U.S. Treasuries will rebalance their positions, and it will return to around 4.5%."
He added, "I believe volatility in U.S. bond yields during the first 100 days of Trump’s second term will be quite significant."
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